Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès: match statistics

Maghreb Fès are slight favourites: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and remain unbeaten, while Ittihad Tanger have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat over the same period. The visitors scored 8 goals and conceded 3 in those matches, compared with 7 goals scored and 5 conceded by the hosts. Away from home, Maghreb average 2 goals per match with a shot conversion rate of 17%, against Ittihad’s 1 goal and 5% conversion rate at home. However, the hosts could create plenty of chances: their average home xG is 2,71, compared with the visitors’ 1,38 away from home, so Maghreb’s edge is not decisive. The home and away figures are based on a small number of matches, adding further uncertainty to the prediction.

BTTS landed in 50% of Ittihad Tanger’s home matches and 100% of Maghreb Fès’s away matches, although the latter figure is based on a small sample. Over their last 5 matches, the respective rates were 80% and 60%, strengthening the case for goals at both ends. The hosts average 1.50 xG at home, while the visitors concede an average of 1.0 goal away from home, making an Ittihad goal a realistic prospect. Maghreb average 2.0 goals scored away, although the hosts’ defence allows just 0.66 xG at home and has kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches. This solid defensive record limits confidence in the prediction, but the recent BTTS frequency for both teams supports backing BTTS - Yes.

In their last five matches, Ittihad Tanger averaged 1.4 goals scored and Maghreb Fès 1.6, indicating that both teams have scoring potential but not necessarily pointing to a very high total. Over the same periods, they conceded 1.0 and 0.6 goals per match, respectively, putting the projected total at 2.55 goals. The case for Under 3.5 goals is also supported by the fact that none of Ittihad’s home matches or Maghreb’s away matches so far have featured at least four goals. This is a stronger signal than for the 2.5 line: Over 2.5 landed in 40% of Ittihad’s last five matches and 60% of Maghreb’s, so exactly three goals remain a realistic outcome.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome: Ittihad Tanger were level at the break in both of their home matches so far, while Maghreb Fès were level at half-time in 3 of their last 5 games. The visitors have not conceded before half-time in any of those 5 matches, limiting the hosts’ chances of taking an early lead. Maghreb’s stronger form supports a full-time win: 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, compared with Ittihad’s 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss. However, the advantage is not decisive, as the hosts average 1.50 xG at home compared with the visitors’ 1.38 xG away, so a full-time draw and Maghreb leading at the break also remain significant possibilities.