Ittihad Tanger vs Raja Casablanca: match statistics

Raja Casablanca is the favorite on paper — they have 14 wins this season versus Ittihad's 8, scoring 34 and conceding 18, while Ittihad has 24 scored and 28 conceded. Away, Raja averages 1.23 goals per game, 3.67 shots on target and 14% shot conversion, whereas Ittihad at home posts 0.92 goals, 2.92 shots on target and 9% conversion, giving the visitors a clear efficiency advantage. The hosts, however, often draw at home (54% of home matches end level) and have a balanced home record (avg. 0.92 scored and 0.92 conceded), and in the last 5 matches Ittihad scored 5 goals and averages 1.8 points per game (3 wins). On the other hand Raja conceded 9 goals in their last 5 matches (1.8 per game), revealing defensive instability; yet xG is similar: 1.27 xG for Ittihad at home versus 1.19 xG for Raja away, with xG against 1.38 and 1.37 respectively. Considering the season-long advantage for the visitors in wins and greater shot efficiency, but also the high home draw rate and Raja's recent defensive frailties, I back the away win; I assign 45% to the away, 30% to the draw and 25% to the home result.

I back BTTS - No (70% vs 30%) — seasonal indicators favor clean sheets. Ittihad concedes only 0.43 goals at home on average and keeps a clean sheet in 57% of matches, with Ittihad's seasonal BTTS at 29% versus Raja's 38%; both are below the league BTTS level of 50%. xG shows Ittihad creates more chances (attacking xG 1.57) while Raja allows xG 1.37, and the home side averages 12.64 shots (4.57 on target) versus the visitors' 8.92 (3.67) — this favors the home defense. Admittedly, Raja have BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches and score 1.6 while conceding 1.8, which increases the risk of an away goal, but the majority of seasonal metrics (high clean sheet percentages: league 62%, home 57%) lead me to choose No.

Based on xG and defensive data I estimate expected goals: Ittihad Tanger ≈ (1.57 + 1.37)/2 = 1.47 and Raja Casablanca ≈ (1.19 + 0.81)/2 = 1.00, total ≈ 2.47 goals. A Poisson model with µ=2.47 yields probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) around 71%, and at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) around 45%. Seasonal stats provide additional signal — Over 1.5 occurred in 50% of Ittihad’s matches and 69% of Raja’s, while Over 0.5 is 86% and 92%, respectively, and Ittihad averages 12.64 shots (4.57 on target) versus Raja 8.92 (3.67). On the other hand seasonal Over 2.5 rates are low (21% Ittihad, 23% Raja) and the home side has 57% clean sheets, so Over 2.5 carries only moderate strength (Under 2.5 ~55%). Therefore the strongest and most likely signal from the data is Over 1.5 (~71%), while Under 2.5 represents a reasonable, less certain alternative.

Ittihad Tanger appears to be the favorite: home points per game average is 2.00 versus 1.62 for Raja Casablanca, and the hosts’ xG is 1.57 compared to 1.19 for the visitors, with the hosts averaging 12.64 shots against 8.92 for their opponents. A draw at the break is relatively frequent — the hosts were level at half-time in 43% of matches, the visitors in 54% — additionally Ittihad concedes only 0.07 goals on average before the break and has 93% clean halves at half-time, suggesting a low number of first-half goals. After the break the hosts are more decisive (in the last 5 matches they averaged 2.2 points after half-time versus 1.0 for Raja) and Ittihad scored as many as 8 goals in minutes 76–90, increasing the chance of a turnaround in the second half. The season full-match clean sheet rate is 57% for the hosts versus 46% for the visitors, and the goals-per-game averages of 1.29 vs 1.23 indicate an overall low scoring environment. Therefore the strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1).