Jablonec vs Zlín: match statistics

Jablonec are clear favourites, primarily thanks to their home form, where they have won 3 of 4 matches, averaging 1.75 goals scored and conceding just 0.75 per game. The hosts create plenty of high-quality chances: their average xG stands at 2.09, compared with just 0.92 xG allowed to opponents, while they also average 19.5 shots and 5.75 shots on target per match. Zlín have lost all 3 of their away games so far and allow opponents an average of 3 goals on the road, without keeping a single clean sheet. The visitors can find the net, averaging 1.67 goals per away match, but their attack generates only 1.25 xG, while their defence looks significantly weaker than the hosts’ backline. Although Jablonec have won only 1 of their last 5 matches overall, home advantage and Zlín’s very poor away record strongly point towards a home victory.

The BTTS pick is primarily supported by the very poor defensive records of both teams: Jablonec concede an average of 1.8 goals, while Zlín concede as many as 3.0 goals per match, with neither side recording a clean sheet this season. Zlín have had BTTS in 100% of their league matches, and all of their games have also finished Over 2.5 Goals, indicating the team’s open style of play. Jablonec have scored just 0.4 goals per match this season and failed to score in 60% of their appearances, meaning the risk of a No Goal scenario for the home side remains significant. However, the last five matches have been more favorable for the hosts, who averaged 1.0 goals with an xG of 1.69, while Zlín conceded 1.8 goals per match during this period. Overall, the combination of defensive signals and Zlín’s high seasonal BTTS rate slightly shifts the prediction toward both teams scoring.

The defensive profile of both teams favors goals: Jablonec concede an average of 1.8 goals at home, while Zlín concede as many as 3.0 away from home. Zlín score an average of 1.67 goals, while the hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet in any match, significantly increasing the visitors’ chances of scoring. In their last five matches, the teams averaged a combined 2.4 goals, with their average xG standing at 1.69 and 1.36 respectively, suggesting that the attacking potential is higher than Jablonec’s poor home finishing indicates. At least 2 goals were scored in 60% of Jablonec’s matches and in all of Zlín’s away games, making Over 1.5 the strongest selection with a projected total of 2.90 goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Jablonec win, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their 5 home matches, while Zlín were trailing at half-time in all 3 of their away games. The opening phase should be cautious: Jablonec have averaged just 0.2 goals before half-time at home, while the average number of first-half goals in the teams’ last 5 matches was 0.6 and 1.0, respectively. After the break, the hosts’ advantage could stem from the visitors’ defensive weaknesses, with Zlín conceding as many as 3.0 goals per away match, compared with Jablonec’s 1.8 goals conceded at home. Jablonec also create slightly better chances, recording an average xG of 1.34 compared with Zlín’s 1.25, and take more shots, 13.2 versus 11.67. The X/1 scenario is further supported by the fact that Zlín have kept a clean sheet in none of their away matches, while Jablonec have been leading at half-time in 40% of their last five matches.