Jadran LP vs Dubrava Zagreb: match statistics

Jadran LP are unbeaten in their last five matches, winning four and drawing one, with a 14:5 goal difference, while Dubrava Zagreb have recorded three wins and two defeats during the same period, with a 9:7 goal ratio. At home, the hosts average 60% possession and score 2 goals per match, whereas the visitors score just 1 goal away from home. Jadran create more consistently dangerous opportunities in the attacking third, allowing opponents an average xG of 0.71—significantly lower than Dubrava’s average xG against of 1.62. The visitors do average 5 shots on target compared to the hosts’ 3, but convert only 7% of their attempts, compared with Jadran’s 14% conversion rate. Both defenses concede an average of 2 goals in their respective home and away conditions, so Dubrava have a case for finding the net; however, the hosts’ superior form and defensive quality make a Jadran win the more likely outcome.

The BTTS signal is clear, as both teams have recorded this scenario in 100% of their matches this season and neither has kept a clean sheet. Jadran LP and Dubrava Zagreb concede an average of 2.0 goals per match, while their average xG against stands at 2.14 and 1.62 respectively, indicating that they regularly allow opponents to create good chances. In their last five matches, BTTS occurred in 60% of Jadran’s games and 80% of Dubrava’s, with average goals scored of 2.8 and 1.8. Dubrava averages 15 shots and 5 shots on target per match, so they should be able to exploit the hosts’ defensive weakness, while Jadran is on a strong run of 14 goals scored in their last five appearances. The “yes” pick is also supported by the league-average BTTS rate of 67%, although Jadran’s lower xG of 0.78 limits confidence in the prediction.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have recorded 100% of matches with at least 2 goals in their league data to date. Jadran LP have averaged 2.8 goals in their last 5 matches, while Dubrava Zagreb have averaged 1.8, indicating strong current attacking potential. In the same five matches, their opponents conceded 1.0 and 1.4 goals per game respectively, while 80% of each team’s matches went Over 2.5 goals. Dubrava average 15 shots and 5 shots on target per match, clearly more than Jadran’s 4 and 3, although the home side benefit from home advantage. The projected total of 2.90 goals also supports Over 2.5, but the 1.5 line offers a significantly safer edge.

Dubrava has a clearly stronger first-half profile: in their last five matches, they were leading at the break in 80% of them, scoring an average of 1.4 goals before half-time. Over the same period, Jadran failed to score in the first half on any occasion, with all five matches level at the break, which increases the likelihood of the visitors taking an early lead. After the interval, however, the advantage shifts to the hosts: Jadran scores an average of 1.0 goals and concedes none, while Dubrava scores only 0.4 goals and allows opponents an average of 1.0. The hosts have won four of their last five matches, averaging 2.8 goals per game compared with Dubrava’s 1.8, so the most likely outcome is an HT/FT turnaround, with the visitors leading at half-time and Jadran overturning the result by the final whistle.