Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin: match statistics
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Jagiellonia Białystok played Pogoń Szczecin in Ekstraklasa (Poland). The match was played on 9 May 2026. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
Jagiellonia Białystok: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Pogoń Szczecin: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Jagiellonia Białystok scores 1.60 and concedes 1.23 goals per match. Pogoń Szczecin scores 1.39 and concedes 1.45. League average: 2.72 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Jagiellonia Białystok 67%, Pogoń Szczecin 58%. Over 2.5: Jagiellonia Białystok 67%, Pogoń Szczecin 55%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Jagiellonia Białystok has higher xG: 1.77 vs 1.64. Jagiellonia Białystok: 15.0 shots per match, Pogoń Szczecin: 14.6.
Match halves
Jagiellonia Białystok: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.87. Pogoń Szczecin: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.68.
Goals by minute
Jagiellonia Białystok: 76-90+ (13 goals). Pogoń Szczecin: 31-45+ (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ekstraklasa: 2.72 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win (1). Jagiellonia has a clear advantage in quality of chances: at home they average 17 shots, 6 on target and 1.97 xG, translating to 2.00 goals scored per game and 12% conversion. Pogoń away averages 12.73 shots, 3.87 on target, 1.47 xG and with a 7% conversion scores only 0.87 goals per away match; additionally they fail to score in 33% of away fixtures. Defensively the hosts concede 1.47 goals per home game, while Pogoń concede 1.6 away; Jagiellonia have a +8 home goal difference whereas Pogoń are -11 on the road and suffer 60% away defeats versus Jagiellonia’s 33% home defeats. Although Pogoń have scored 7 goals and average 1.4 pts per game in their last 5 matches and Jagiellonia 6 goals and 1.0 pts, the xG, shots and conversion figures favor the hosts.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal BTTS indicators are high: Jagiellonia has 63% of matches with both teams scoring, Pogoń 53%, and the league average is 57%, giving a baseline close to 58%. Offensively Jagiellonia scores 1.88 goals per game with xG 1.8 and 5.25 shots on target, while Pogoń has 0.87 goals and xG 1.47 with 3.87 shots on target, suggesting a home-created chances advantage. Both defenses are porous: Jagiellonia concedes 1.31 goals per game, Pogoń 1.6, and conceded xG are 1.64 and 1.79, so both sides give opponents scoring opportunities. Counterpoints to BTTS: Pogoń fail to score in 33% of matches, Jagiellonia kept a clean sheet in 25% of games, and Jagiellonia failed to score in 13% of matches; in the last 5 games BTTS was 60% for Jagiellonia and 40% for Pogoń. Considering the 58% seasonal BTTS average, the home offensive edge and mutual defensive vulnerability, I assign 64% to BTTS - Yes (Goal/Goal) and 36% to No Goal as the most likely scenario.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Jagiellonia scores on average 1.88 goals per match (xG 1.80) and averages 16.38 shots, of which 5.25 are on target; Pogoń averages 0.87 goals (xG 1.47) with 12.73 shots and 3.87 on target. Comparing the home attack xG (1.80) vs Pogoń’s defensive xG (1.79), and Pogoń’s attack xG (1.47) vs the home defensive xG (1.64) yields expected goals of approximately 1.80 for Jagiellonia and 1.55 for Pogoń (total 3.35). With a combined expected total of 3.35, the probability distribution implies roughly an 85% chance of Over 1.5, about 65% for Over 2.5 and around 43% for Over 3.5. Additionally, seasonal percentages show: Jagiellonia have 88% of home matches over 1.5 and 69% over 2.5, Pogoń have 80% and 40% — this supports the expectation of a high-scoring game; both teams register BTTS at 63% and 53% respectively. The strongest signal is Over 1.5, so I recommend the Over side on the 1.5 line as the safest choice.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Jagiellonia dominates in first halves: the home side led at the break in 7 matches (44%) compared to just 3 halftime leads for Pogoń (20%), with average goals by halftime of 0.88 for Jagiellonia versus 0.53 for Pogoń. Additionally, Jagiellonia posts higher xG and more scoring opportunities: xG 1.80 versus 1.47 and 5.25 shots on target per match versus 3.87, which increases the probability of taking and maintaining a lead. Over the whole season the hosts average 1.88 goals and 1.81 points per match with 56% wins, while Pogoń records 0.87 goals and 0.80 points and only 20% wins, hence strongest support for the scenario of the home side leading at halftime and winning at full-time (1/1). Note the last-5 figure: Pogoń led at the break in 3 of 5 (60%), so the risk of a draw or an away turnaround assigns moderate likelihood to the X/1 and X/X alternatives.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Jagiellonia Białystok | Pogoń Szczecin | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Pogoń Szczecin is 40% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Jagiellonia Białystok · 1.4 pts / match - Pogoń Szczecin
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Jagiellonia Białystok is 15% better for: goals scored per match.
1.6 goals / match - Jagiellonia Białystok · 1.39 goals / match - Pogoń Szczecin
Jagiellonia Białystok is 18% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.23 goals / match - Jagiellonia Białystok · 1.45 goals / match - Pogoń Szczecin
Jagiellonia Białystok scores in 80% of matches (24 of 30 matches), while Pogoń Szczecin keeps a clean sheet in 19% (6 of 31 matches).
Pogoń Szczecin scores in 77% of matches (24 of 31 matches), while Jagiellonia Białystok keeps a clean sheet in 27% (8 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Jagiellonia Białystok
Over / Under - Pogoń Szczecin
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Jagiellonia Białystok is 6% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / match - Jagiellonia Białystok · 1.26 pts / match - Pogoń Szczecin
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Jagiellonia Białystok - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Pogoń Szczecin - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (14 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Jagiellonia Białystok
Pogoń Szczecin
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ekstraklasa).
Teams vs league
| Jagiellonia Białystok | Liga | Pogoń Szczecin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.83 | 2.72 | ▲ 2.84 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 58% | • 58% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 52% | ▲ 55% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 27% | 24% | ▼ 19% |
| Goal before half-time | • 73% | 73% | ▲ 87% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 78% | ▲ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Jagiellonia Białystok 1 - 0 - 0 Pogoń Szczecin. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin?
The Ekstraklasa match finished Jagiellonia Białystok 3:2 Pogoń Szczecin. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin?
Jagiellonia Białystok score 1.60 goals per game on average and Pogoń Szczecin 1.39. The Ekstraklasa average is 2.72 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Jagiellonia Białystok's matches and 58% of Pogoń Szczecin's.
What form are Jagiellonia Białystok and Pogoń Szczecin in?
Over the last 5 games Jagiellonia Białystok have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Pogoń Szczecin 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin?
The statistical background for Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.