Jagiellonia II vs Lomza: match statistics

Lomza is the favorite in this fixture – they have 18 wins this season versus Jagiellonia II’s 12 and a +13 goal difference away compared to the hosts’ -1; the visitors have scored 64 and conceded 27, the hosts 42 and 40. Lomza’s defence looks superior: the visitors concede 0.93 goals per away match on average, while Jagiellonia concede 1.64 at home, and Lomza keep clean sheets away in 36% of games versus 21% for the hosts. Jagiellonia creates more chances at home (15.5 shots and 6.63 on target on average, xG 1.58) but have a lower shot conversion rate of 9% versus Lomza’s 13% (Lomza xG 1.70), so the hosts are less efficient despite more attempts. Over the last 5 matches both teams average 2 points per game, however Jagiellonia scored 12 and conceded 9, while Lomza scored 9 and conceded only 3, further highlighting the visitors’ defensive edge. Considering better conversion (13% vs 9%), lower average goals conceded (0.93 vs 1.64), stronger win record and a positive goal balance for the visitors, I estimate Lomza’s chances of winning at about 60%.

I pick 'yes' — I estimate BTTS probability at 65% vs 35% for 'no'. The home team averages 2.53 goals per game this season and has zero clean sheets (FTS 0%); in the last 5 matches they scored 12 goals (2.4 per game), indicating the home side almost always appears on the scoresheet. The away team has a seasonal average of 1.86 goals and 64 goals scored, and in the last 5 matches they scored 9 goals (1.8 per game), so they also score regularly; seasonal BTTS is 53% for the home team and 43% for the away team, while the league-wide BTTS is 63%, which raises the baseline chance of both teams scoring. Defensive indicators are mixed: the home side concedes 0.93 goals seasonally but conceded 1.8 on average in the last 5 (9 goals), whereas the away team concedes 0.93 seasonally and only 0.6 in the last 5 (3 goals), so the away defence looks more solid — this slightly lowers BTTS probability but does not negate the attacking strengths. Additionally both teams generate 1.7 xG per game, and the home team has higher shot efficiency (18% vs 13%), therefore combined with the home 0% FTS and league BTTS 63% I choose 'yes' (65%) as the strongest signal.

I based expected goals on a combination of xG and seasonal averages: home xG_for 1.70 and Łomża xG_against 1.40 yield 1.55, home seasonal average goals scored 2.53 and away seasonal goals conceded 0.93 yield 1.73, averaging gives expected_goals_home 1.64; similarly for the away side xG_for 1.70 and home xG_against 1.12 give 1.41, and seasonals 1.86 vs 0.93 give 1.39, average is expected_goals_away 1.40 (total 3.04). A Poisson model with λ=3.04 indicates OVER 1.5 at ~81% (P(0 or 1) ≈ 19%), OVER 2.5 ≈59% and OVER 3.5 ≈36%, which aligns with seasonal over shares: home team has 67% over2.5 and 27% over3.5, away 50% over2.5 and 21% over3.5. Additionally, the home side averages 2.53 goals at home while Łomża averages 1.86 away; both teams generate a high number of shots (14.36 vs 12.55) and have decent conversion rates (18% vs 13%), reinforcing the signal for more than 1.5 goals. Based on this, the strongest and most justified selection is to play OVER 1.5.

Jagiellonia II led at the break in 8 matches (53%) and scores on average 1.0 goal before half-time, while Łomża averages 0.54 goals to the break and led after 45 minutes in only 2 games (15%). The hosts are stronger over the full 90 minutes: they average 2.53 goals per match compared to Łomża’s 1.86 and have a higher win rate (67% vs 57%). Additionally, Jagiellonia II registers 6.09 shots on target per match versus Łomża’s 5.55, has the same attacking xG on average (1.7) but a lower xG conceded (1.12 vs 1.4), indicating better control and less susceptibility to opponent goals. Given that the hosts frequently lead at the break (53%) and can maintain their advantage in the second half (they have a 73% win rate in second halves in their category), the most likely HT/FT scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1).