Jagiellonia II vs Pelikan Łowicz: match statistics

Pelikan Łowicz have shown significantly more consistent form, collecting 13 points from four wins and a draw in their last five matches, compared with Jagiellonia II’s 8 points. The visitors have also been more effective during this period, scoring 8 goals to the hosts’ 7, while their defence has conceded only 4 goals compared with Jagiellonia II’s 6. Pelikan have won 100% of their away matches so far and are yet to concede a goal, although their average xG against stands at 1.47, suggesting that the hosts should create chances. Jagiellonia II produce a higher xG at home, 1.98 compared with the visitors’ 1.70, and average 16 shots per match, but they drew their only home fixture and failed to keep a clean sheet. Pelikan’s advantage in results, defensive resilience and current unbeaten run supports an away win, although the risk of a closely contested match remains significant.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by Jagiellonia II’s very high rate of matches in which both teams scored, standing at 100% for the season and 80% across their last five games. The hosts have kept no clean sheets, while conceding an average of 1.2 goals in their last five appearances, giving Pelikan a realistic route to goal. The visitors are in good form, scoring 8 goals in five matches and averaging xG of 1.68, while Jagiellonia II’s defensive xG stands at 1.46. Pelikan have defended more solidly recently, conceding an average of 0.8 goals, but Jagiellonia II create plenty of chances: 1.64 xG, 8 shots on target and an average of 1.4 goals scored in their last five matches. Despite Pelikan’s season-long clean sheet record, the combination of both teams’ current attacking strength and the league BTTS rate of 64% slightly favours the Goal/Goal outcome.

In their last five matches, Jagiellonia II have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Pelikan Łowicz have scored 1.6 goals with only 0.8 conceded. Both sides' creative potential is higher than their recent finishing output, with average xG figures of 1.64 and 1.68 respectively. The hosts average 8 shots on target per match, while their recent fixtures have produced an average of 5.0 goals, although their more recent form points to a more moderate scenario. The league averages 3.55 goals per match, and 68% of its games finish with at least three goals. The strongest selection remains Over 1.5: a projected 2.74 goals provides a clearly higher safety margin for this line than for the more evenly balanced Over 2.5.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Pelikan win after the match, as the visitors were level at the break in 100% of their last five games, without leading or trailing on any occasion. Over the same period, Pelikan won 4 of 5 matches, remained unbeaten, and averaged 1.5 goals after half-time, compared with just 0.8 for Jagiellonia II. The hosts held a half-time lead in only 20% of their last five appearances, while in 40% they went into the break behind. After the interval, Pelikan won 100% of their last five second halves and recorded a +2 goal difference in them, clearly supporting a match outcome being decided only in the latter stages. Jagiellonia II have a creative edge, averaging 8 shots on target compared with the opponent’s 4, but the visitors’ superior recent results-based form points to a win after an even first half.