Jagiellonia II vs Troszyn: match statistics

The visitors are favored: Troszyn sit 5th versus 8th-place Jagiellonia II and have 16 wins this season with 73 goals scored, while the hosts have 13 wins and 43 goals. In the last 5 matches Troszyn have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 9 and conceding 5; Jagiellonia II over the same period have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses with a 7-10 goal record and average 1.4 points per game versus 2.0 for the visitors. Although the hosts register more shots and more shots on target (15 shots and 6.33 SoT per home match vs 11.55 shots and 4.82 SoT per away match for the visitors), finishing rate favors Troszyn (conversion 14% vs 8%), translating into more goals (2.0 average away vs 1.47 for the home side at home). Defensively both teams concede on average 1.67 goals per game, but xG against shows an advantage for the visitors: Jagiellonia II have xG against 1.61 in home matches, while Troszyn only 1.10 away, suggesting the visitors better limit high-probability scoring situations. Considering higher finishing efficiency (73 vs 43 goals, 14% vs 8% conversion), superior recent form and lower xG against, I project a Troszyn win and estimate probabilities of approximately 55% for the visitors, 20% for the hosts and 25% for a draw.

A strong signal for BTTS - Yes is that Jagiellonia II have 63% of matches with both teams scoring, Troszyn 73%, and the league BTTS rate is 62%. In the last 5 rounds both teams also show 60% BTTS, with Jagiellonia II conceding on average 2.0 goals in those five matches versus Troszyn conceding 1.0, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Season averages show hosts score 2.69 and concede 1.13 per match, visitors score 2.00 and concede 1.67, so both sides have the ability to score and to concede. xG and shots data confirm this picture: season xG for hosts is 1.97 vs 1.49 for guests, xG against is around 1.06–1.10, and hosts register 7.67 shots on target vs 4.82 for guests with conversion 18% vs 14%. High over 2.5 percentages (81% hosts, 73% guests) and the co-occurrence of over2.5 with BTTS in 56% and 60% of cases amplify this signal, therefore I tip BTTS (Yes).

Jagiellonia II scores an average of 2.69 goals per match (xG 1.97) and concedes 1.13, while Troszyn averages 2.00 goals (xG 1.49) and concedes 1.67, indicating a match with elevated goal potential. Comparing xG: hosts 1.97 versus opponents’ xG against of 1.10 yields an expected 1.54 goals for Jagiellonia, and visitors 1.49 versus opponents’ xG against of 1.06 yields 1.27 for Troszyn — a combined 2.81 expected goals. Season data reinforce this: Over 1.5 occurred for hosts in 94% and for visitors in 100%, while Over 2.5 in 81% and 73% respectively, with BTTS at 63% and 73%. Additionally, hosts average 16.44 shots and 7.67 on target with an 18% conversion rate, and visitors 11.55 and 4.82 with a 14% conversion, so goals from both sides are likely. Consequently the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (very high probability ~97%), although Over 2.5 also appears realistic (~78%).

Jagiellonia II holds a clear seasonal advantage: an average of 2.06 points per match versus Troszyn’s 1.4 and a higher xG of 1.97 versus 1.49, indicating better chance creation. At Half-Time the home side led in 40% of matches, draws occurred in 27%, and the visitors led in 33%, so a lead at the break most often favors the home team. After the break Jagiellonia II scores on average 1.87 goals versus Troszyn’s 0.87 and records 73% wins in second halves, which increases the likelihood of maintaining or extending a lead. Additionally, the home team registers 7.67 shots on target versus the visitors’ 4.82 and has a conversion rate of 18% compared to 14%, while the seasonal win rate of 63% versus the visitors’ 40% further confirms Jagiellonia II as the favorite. Therefore the most probable scenario is the home team leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time (1/1, 34%), with a significant alternative signal for a draw at Half-Time followed by a home win Full-Time (X/1, 19%).