Jagiellonia II vs Wasilków: match statistics

I predict a home win. Jagiellonia II hold a statistical home advantage: they sit 8th versus Wasilków’s 17th, scoring 1.38 and conceding 1.63 per home match, while the visitors average 1.06 goals scored and 2.5 conceded on the road. The hosts create more chances — 15 average shots and 6.33 on target per match with xG 1.55, compared to Wasilków’s 9.6 shots, 4.2 on target and xG 1.24. Wasilków exhibit significant defensive and form issues: 78 goals conceded this season, 81% away defeats and 13 goals conceded in the last 5 matches versus 7 conceded by the hosts. Considering superior xG, higher shot volume and the visitors’ markedly weaker defense, I assess the home win probability at ~65%, draw 20% and away win 15%.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 59% for Jagiellonia II and 63% for Wasilków, averaging ~61% versus a league BTTS level of 62%, indicating both teams tend to exchange goals. Clean sheet chances are very low — seasonal values only 6% for both sides — while average goals conceded are 2.24 (home) and 2.50 (away), so both teams regularly allow goals. Additionally, Over 2.5 occurs in 76% of home matches and 81% of away matches, and the Over2.5 + BTTS combination is 59% and 63%, with a league average of 3.34 goals per match, which amplifies the mutual scoring scenario. In the last 5 matches the visitors conceded 13 goals versus 7 for the hosts, and xG values show similar attacking potential 1.23 (Jagiellonia II) vs 1.24 (Wasilków) with xG against around 1.22 vs 1.70, suggesting both sides create and concede scoring chances. Considering the 59–63% seasonal BTTS, 6% clean sheet probability, high Over2.5 (76–81%) and the visitors’ defensive issues (78 goals conceded this season), I recommend BTTS = Yes with a probability of 78% versus 22% for No.

Jagiellonia II scores on average 1.29 goals and concedes 2.24, while Wasilków scores 1.06 and concedes 2.50 per match, indicating vulnerable defenses on both sides. Offensive xG are 1.23 (Jagiellonia II) and 1.24 (Wasilków), with conceded xG 1.22 (Jagiellonia II) and 1.70 (Wasilków); averaging these yields expected goals of 1.47 for the home side and 1.23 for the away side (total ~2.70). Season Over2.5 rates are 76% for the home team and 81% for the away team (league 66%), and Over1.5 is 82%/88%, which further supports a higher goal count. Both teams have only 6% clean sheets and BTTS occurs in 59–63% of matches; in the last 5 away games Over2.5 was 100% (home team 40%), increasing the probability of a result above 2.5. Given the expected total goals of ~2.70 and strong season Over2.5 indicators, the best pick is Over at the 2.5 line.

First-half analysis indicates an advantage for Jagiellonia II: the hosts led at the break in 4 matches (24%) and in the last 5 fixtures they had an HT lead in 50% of cases, whereas Wasilków led at the break in only 2 matches (13%) and 20% in the last 5. By half-time Jagiellonia II averages 0.53 goals scored and Wasilków 0.5; simultaneously the visitors concede an average of 1.19 goals by the break versus 0.76 conceded by the hosts, which shows greater susceptibility of Wasilków to conceding before half-time. Over the full match the hosts average 1.29 goals scored and 2.24 conceded, while the visitors average 1.06 scored and 2.5 conceded; with an average points return for the hosts of 0.88 points per match versus 0.56 for the opponent and a higher loss rate for the visitors (81% vs 59%), the hosts are the favorites to win. Additionally, Jagiellonia II have 53% clean halves at HT compared to 25% for Wasilków and in the last 5 matches the hosts had 100% of games with at least one goal before the break, so the strongest scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and maintaining the win (HT/FT 1/1).