Jahn Regensburg vs Erzgebirge Aue: match statistics

The favorite is Jahn Regensburg: at home they average 1.67 goals per game with xG 1.49 and register 5.27 shots on target, while Erzgebirge Aue away average 1.00 goal with xG 1.35 and 3.87 shots on target. This season Regensburg have 11 wins, 6 draws and 14 losses, whereas Aue only 5 wins, 9 draws and 17 losses—combined with league positions 14 vs 18 this favors the home side. Defensively the hosts also perform better—conceding 1.47 goals at home versus Aue’s 2.00 conceded on the road, and a home goal difference of +3 compared to the visitors’ -15 away. Recent form over the last 5 matches is poor: Regensburg have 0.8 points per game, Aue 0.6, although the visitors have scored 17 goals recently but also conceded 14, indicating open, error-prone encounters. Considering higher efficiency (conversion 15% vs 9%), a larger share of shots on target and 47% home win rate versus Aue’s 7% away win rate, I predict a home victory, though I expect a match with goals (Regensburg average 3.13 goals and Aue 3.00 in away games).

A strong signal for BTTS - Yes comes from seasonal and recent form: seasonal BTTS are 50% for Jahn Regensburg and 80% for Erzgebirge Aue, and in the last 5 matches 60% and 80% respectively. The away side scored 17 goals in their last 5 matches (avg 3.4), while the hosts scored 7 (avg 1.4); hosts concede 1.81 goals per game this season and the visitors 2.0, indicating a high number of goals conceded on both sides. xG confirms an offensive profile: xG_for 1.6 (hosts) vs 1.35 (away), and xG_against 1.78 and 1.69 shows both teams create and allow ~1.3–1.8 xG per match. Additionally, the league has BTTS 63% and an average goals of 3.14, while shot and conversion stats (hosts: 13.25 shots/4.69 SOT/10% conversion; away: 11.2/3.87/9%) and over2.5 rates (69% and 67%) support a both-teams-to-score scenario. At the same time the higher clean sheet rate for hosts 31% vs 13% for away and the fact hosts fail to score in 38% of matches reduce confidence, therefore I predict BTTS 'Yes' with probability 75% and 'No' 25%.

xG and goal averages indicate a high scoring potential: home xG 1.6 vs away xG against 1.69, yielding an expected 1.65 goals for Jahn Regensburg; away xG 1.35 vs home xG against 1.78 translates to about 1.57 goals for Erzgebirge Aue, totalling 3.22 goals. Seasonal rates confirm this picture: Over 1.5 occurred in 81% of home matches and 80% of away matches, while Over 2.5 in 69%/67%, meaning the chance of at least 2 goals is high and 3+ goals is also material (44% for home, 40% for away). BTTS appears in 50% of home games and as much as 80% of away games, further increasing the probability of both teams scoring. Shooting stats support the offensive outlook: Regensburg averages 13.25 shots with 4.69 on target (conversion 10%), Aue 11.2 with 3.87 on target (conversion 9%), which, together with the league average goals of 3.14, justifies the 3.22 goals forecast. As a result the strongest and safest signal is an OVER at the 1.5 line; the 2.5 line also makes sense (est. 68% for over) but offers a smaller edge than 1.5.

Data analysis indicates an advantage for Jahn Regensburg: average home xG 1.60 versus 1.35 for the visitors, and average goals 1.38 at home versus 1.00 scored by Erzgebirge Aue away, with the home side also recording more on-target shots (4.69 vs 3.87). In the last five matches the home team led at the break in 50% of games, while the visitors did so in only 25%; across those five fixtures the visitors conceded an average of 2.25 first-half goals versus 0.25 conceded by the hosts, so Jahn’s lead at the break is evident. Seasonally Jahn averages 1.06 points per home match versus 0.47 points per away match for Aue, which—combined with the higher xG and shot volume—gives them greater chances of a full-time victory. Therefore I assign the highest weight to the scenario of the home side leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT 1/1 – 26%), while alternatives such as a draw at half-time and a later home win (HT/FT X/1 – 14%) or a turnaround by the visitors (HT/FT 2/1 – 11%) are less likely; the visitors’ high BTTS rate (80%) maintains a moderate share for scenarios where both teams score.