Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf: match statistics

Both teams are in poor form: Jahn Regensburg have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, while Fortuna Düsseldorf have lost 3 of 5, scoring just 3 goals during that period. At home, Regensburg average only 0.5 goals and have failed to win either of their two matches, despite creating chances worth 1.70 xG per game. Fortuna also average 0.5 goals away from home, but are considerably more solid defensively, conceding 1.0 goal from 1.40 xG against, compared with the hosts’ 1.5 goals conceded and 1.84 xG. The visitors have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their away matches, while both teams have failed to score in half of such fixtures, pointing towards a low-scoring game. Regensburg’s advantage in home shots, 15 to 11.5, could offset Fortuna’s stronger defence, making a draw the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Jahn Regensburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging just 0.5 goals per match this season, with both teams failing to score in 50% of their fixtures. Regensburg have a seasonal BTTS rate of 0%, while Fortuna stand at 50%, both clearly below the league average of 57%. Both teams keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches, so there is a realistic chance that at least one side will fail to find the net again. Regensburg’s last five appearances have been more open, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, with BTTS landing in 60% of matches, but Fortuna have scored only 0.6 goals per game over the same period. The visitors’ xG from their last five matches stands at 1.31, compared with 1.54 xG conceded by Regensburg, but their low conversion rate and seasonal goals average support a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

In their last five matches, Regensburg averaged 1.4 goals scored and as many as 2.2 goals conceded, producing a total average of 3.6 goals per game, while Düsseldorf’s matches averaged 2.4 goals. However, the offensive potential is not particularly high: both the home and away teams are scoring 0.5 goals per game in the current campaign, with both sides recording a conversion rate of just 4%. The xG model points to a relatively balanced 1.42 for Regensburg and 1.31 for Düsseldorf across their last five appearances, supporting a scenario of around 2–3 goals rather than an open, high-scoring game. Both teams have recorded Under 3.5 goals in 100% of their matches in the available seasonal sample, making Under 3.5 the strongest pick despite the league’s high average of 3.3 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Jahn Regensburg win at full-time (X/1). Both teams were level at the break in 40% of their last five matches, while Fortuna failed to score before half-time during this period and conceded an average of 0.6 goals. The hosts nevertheless have stronger underlying numbers to decide the match after the interval: their average xG is 1.49 compared with Fortuna’s 1.39, while opponents generate 1.40 xG against Fortuna, compared with just 0.90 against Jahn. An average of 2.6 goals was scored after half-time in the hosts’ last five matches, while Jahn averaged 1.0 goal per game in that period, supporting a turnaround from the initial draw. The hosts’ advantage is moderate, as both teams won only 20% of their last five matches; however, Fortuna lost 60% of them, while Jahn has the better season points average: 1.5 compared with 0.5.