Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse: match statistics

Jahn Regensburg have the edge in chance creation at home, averaging 1.60 xG and 13.67 shots per match, while Havelse average 0.64 xG and 4.33 shots away from home. The visitors concede chances worth 2.01 xG on the road, giving the hosts an opportunity to break through despite their modest average of 0.67 goals at home. Both teams have lost all three of their matches so far in their respective home and away settings, and each concedes an average of 1.67 goals in those conditions, making a one-sided contest difficult to predict. However, Jahn have picked up two points and scored eight goals in their last five matches, while Havelse have claimed one point and netted six times. The hosts’ superior chance quality and slightly better recent form point towards a home win, although their poor finishing limits confidence in the prediction.

The strongest case for both teams to score is that both sides have scored and conceded in each of their last 5 matches, while their season rates for such games stand at 100% for Regensburg and 67% for Havelse. Regensburg concede an average of 2.5 goals at home, and Havelse 1.67 away, so both defenses give their opponents opportunities to score. The hosts average 2.0 goals at home, clearly strengthening the prospect of them finding the net. The greater uncertainty concerns the visitors: they score just 0.67 goals away from home, with an xG of 0.64, and failed to score in 33% of those matches. Despite Havelse’s attacking weakness, the teams’ combined record across their last 5 matches and the number of goals Regensburg concede point toward BTTS - Yes.

In each of the last five matches played by either team, at least 3 goals were scored. Regensburg have conceded an average of 2,8 goals, compared with 2,6 for Havelse. Regensburg average 2,0 goals at home, while Havelse concede 1,67 away from home, favouring goals for the hosts. The visitors have a more modest attacking record, averaging 0,67 goals away, but Regensburg concede 2,5 goals per home match, making a Havelse goal a realistic possibility. The projected total of 3,15 goals also points towards Over 2.5 goals, although Over 1.5 is the stronger pick: it has landed in all of Regensburg’s home matches and in 67% of Havelse’s away fixtures.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Jahn Regensburg win at full-time. Havelse were level at the break in 2 of their 3 matches and conceded an average of just 0.33 goals in first halves, pointing to a closely contested start. After the break, the visitors have yet to score and concede an average of 1.33 goals, while the hosts score an average of 1.25 in this period. Jahn’s attacking edge is reflected in their average xG of 1.10 compared with Havelse’s 0.64, as well as 3.5 shots on target per match against 1.33. However, this HT/FT pick is not a certainty: the hosts were trailing at the break in 3 of their 4 matches, so a turnaround also has a notable chance.