Jarosław vs Star Starachowice: match statistics

Jarosław have the stronger overall season record: they have scored 9 goals and conceded 8, while Star Starachowice have scored just 5 and also conceded 8. At home, the hosts average 1.67 goals per match and have yet to draw a blank, whereas the visitors have failed to score in 50% of their away games. Star’s defensive record on the road is another key factor, as they concede an average of as many as 3.5 goals, have kept no clean sheets and have lost both of their away fixtures so far. Jarosław create chances worth 1.34 xG at home, while their opponents allow an average of 1.99 xG, significantly increasing the hosts’ chances of scoring multiple goals. Jarosław’s form over their last five matches stands at 2 wins and 1 draw, while Star have recorded just 1 victory and enter this match on the back of two consecutive away defeats.

A scenario in which at least one team fails to score is slightly more likely, mainly due to Jarosław’s very solid defence: the hosts concede only 0.33 goals per match on average and have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games. Star Starachowice score just 1.0 goal per match on average and failed to score in 50% of their league matches, increasing the risk that they will be unable to break through the hosts’ defence. Jarosław, however, should find the back of the net, as their opponents concede as many as 3.5 goals per game, have recorded no clean sheets, while the hosts average 15 shots and 6.67 shots on target per match. A warning sign for the BTTS - No pick is Jarosław’s form over the last five games, during which BTTS landed in 80% of cases and they conceded 1.6 goals on average. Nevertheless, the hosts’ season-long defensive figures are clearly stronger. Therefore, the most likely outcome appears to be a scenario in which Jarosław score, while Star Starachowice remain goalless.

Jarosław create chances worth an average of 1.69 xG at home and take 15 shots per game, while Star concede as many as 3.50 goals away from home and allow opponents 1.99 xG. The visitors have kept no clean sheets, and at least 2 goals were scored in 100% of their away matches so far. In their last five games, Jarosław averaged 1.8 goals scored but conceded 1.6, further weakening the case for a very low-scoring outcome. The Over 1.5 goals line has the strongest support: both teams reached it in 67% and 100% of their matches, respectively, while the projected total of 2.56 goals is clearly above this threshold.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a Jarosław victory at full-time, as both teams drew at the break in 100% of the available matches under these conditions. Jarosław have not conceded before half-time at home, while Star have averaged just 1.0 goal per away match. After the break, the hosts score an average of 1.0 goal and concede none, whereas Star concede as many as 3.0 goals in second halves. Jarosław’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG is 1.69 compared with 1.10 for the visitors, and they average 15 shots to their opponents’ 8. Star have lost 100% of their away matches and concede an average of 3.5 goals on the road, so following an evenly matched start, the most likely outcome is for the hosts to turn the match in their favour after half-time.