JDFS Alberts vs Smiltene: match statistics

JDFS Alberts sit 5th, while Smiltene are 13th, with season records of 10 wins in 18 matches and just 2 victories, respectively. The hosts are unbeaten in their last five matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding just 3 during that run, whereas the visitors have lost 4 of their last 5 games, conceding as many as 20 goals. At home, JDFS Alberts win 63% of their matches, average 2.13 goals scored and generate 1.95 xG, with 7.5 shots on target per game. Smiltene lose 67% of their away matches, concede an average of 2.89 goals, have kept no clean sheets, and register an average attacking xG of just 1.08. The hosts’ superiority in controlling the game, with 54% possession compared to their opponents’ 41%, combined with a far more stable defence, points to a clear JDFS Alberts victory.

Both teams have recorded BTTS in 56% of their league matches, while over the last five games the rate has risen to 60% for JDFS Alberts and as high as 80% for Smiltene. Smiltene have failed to keep a clean sheet in every match this season and concede an average of 2.89 goals, while allowing 20 goals in their last five appearances, which strongly supports a home goal. JDFS Alberts score an average of 1.33 goals from 1.38 xG, while the visitors, despite a lower average of 1.00 goal, create chances worth 1.08 xG per match. The home side’s defence has been clearly stronger recently, conceding just 0.6 goals per game across their last five matches, but Smiltene scored 1.6 goals during this period and posted 1.52 xG. The BTTS - Yes pick is therefore the stronger option, although JDFS Alberts’ defensive improvement limits its confidence.

The match profile points towards at least two goals: Over 1.5 has landed in 78% of JDFS Alberts matches and as many as 89% of Smiltene fixtures. Smiltene have kept no clean sheets this season, concede an average of 2.89 goals, and have allowed their opponents to score 20 goals in their last 5 appearances, equating to 4.0 per match. The hosts are in good attacking form, scoring 1.8 goals per game recently, while their xG stands at 1.52 compared with Smiltene’s average xG conceded of 2.01 over the same period. The visitors have also scored 1.6 goals per match recently, lifting the projected total to 2.98 goals. The strongest selection is Over 1.5, as it requires just two goals despite the visitors’ clear defensive weakness and the high historical hit rates for this line on both sides.

JDFS Alberts are in significantly better form: they have averaged 2.2 points over their last five matches, won 60% of them and remained unbeaten, while Smiltene lost 80% of their games. The hosts were leading at the break in 60% of their last five matches, whereas the visitors were never ahead at half-time and were trailing after the first half in 60% of cases. During this period, Alberts conceded just 0.4 goals per match before the break, compared with Smiltene’s 1.8, which clearly strengthens the scenario of the hosts taking the lead in the first half. After the interval, the visitors’ defence still looks vulnerable, with an average of 2.2 goals conceded, while Alberts allowed opponents just 0.6 goals per match across their last five games. Although both teams have an 11% win rate over the season as a whole, current form, the hosts’ superior xG of 1.38 compared with 1.08, and home advantage all point towards an HT/FT 1/1 result.