Jeddah vs Al Faisaly: match statistics

Al Faisaly are clear favourites: they sit 4th in the table while Jeddah are 13th; Al Faisaly have 15 wins and 59 goals this season versus Jeddah’s 8 wins and 30 goals. Away, Al Faisaly average 2.21 goals and have an xG of 1.56, whereas Jeddah at home average only 0.64 goals and xG 1.18; visitors average 11 shots with 4.5 on target, hosts 9.36 shots and 3.36 on target. The visitors’ efficiency is reflected in a conversion rate of 20% versus Jeddah’s 7% and a low share of goalless matches (7% for Al Faisaly vs 43% for Jeddah). Defensively Jeddah concede 1.64 goals at home on average, while Al Faisaly concede 1.00 away and keep clean sheets in 36% of matches versus 21% for the hosts. In the last 5 fixtures Al Faisaly have won 4 and drawn 1 (2.6 points per game), Jeddah have 2 wins and 3 defeats (1.2 PPG), so I forecast an away win.

Seasonal metrics strongly support BTTS: Jeddah have BTTS in 60% of matches, Al Faisaly in 64%, and the league average is 61%, providing solid historical backing for both teams to score. Al Faisaly are in clear attacking form — averaging 2.8 goals in their last 5 matches (14 goals in 5) and 2.21 goals per game this season (59 goals), so an away goal looks highly likely. Jeddah have short-term offensive problems: only 0.6 goals in the last 5 matches (3 goals total) and only 20% of those were BTTS, but seasonally the hosts score 1.87 and concede 1.27 per game, and their seasonal BTTS rate is 60%, which maintains the risk of both teams scoring. Additionally, xG for the hosts is 1.47 versus 1.56 for the visitors, xG against 1.25 versus 1.26, and shots on target are similar (4.8 vs 4.5); the high percentages of matches over 2.5 goals (67% and 71%) also support the BTTS scenario. Considering these numbers and the form asymmetry (Jeddah’s weak attack vs Al Faisaly’s strong attack), I prefer the "BTTS - Yes" bet with an estimated probability of about 70% to 30% for "No Goal."

Expected goals based on xG: Jeddah’s xG is 1.47 and xG conceded to Al Faisaly is 1.26, yielding roughly 1.37 goals for the home side; similarly Al Faisaly’s xG is 1.56 and xG conceded to Jeddah is 1.25, yielding about 1.40 for the visitors, totaling ~2.77 goals. Season-long metrics confirm a propensity for multiple goals — Over 1.5 occurred in 73% of Jeddah’s matches and 79% of Al Faisaly’s, while Over 2.5 occurred in 67% and 71% of matches respectively; both teams scored in 60% and 64% of league matches. In the last 5 matches Al Faisaly scored 14 goals (avg. 2.8) whereas Jeddah only 3 (0.6); visitors also show higher shot conversion 20% vs 15% for hosts with average shots 11.0 vs 12.33, suggesting an attacking edge for Al Faisaly. A Poisson model with lambda=2.77 yields P(Under 1.5)≈23.5% (Over 1.5≈76.5%) and P(Over 2.5)≈52.5%, but accounting for seasonal Over 2.5 rates (67–71%) I adjust the Over 2.5 estimate up to ~61%; Over 3.5 is a compromise at ~38%. Based on this the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation: back over at the 1.5 line) with an estimated probability of about 76%.

Al Faisaly are the favorites: season average goals scored 2.21 versus Jeddah’s 1.87, average points per match 2.07 versus 1.73, and the away win rate is 57% compared to 47% for hosts (away team lost only 7% of matches vs hosts’ 20%). Al Faisaly’s advantage is especially pronounced in the first half — the visitors led at the break in 50% of matches this season and in 60% of their last 5 games, and the average first-half goals in the last 5 matches are 2.0 for Al Faisaly versus 0.2 for Jeddah. The visitors rarely finish matches goalless (only in 7% of games), while Jeddah failed to score in 27% of matches; additionally, shot conversion rate is 20% for the visitors versus 15% for the hosts. Although xG is similar (1.56 vs 1.47), better conversion and form (last 5: 80% wins for Al Faisaly vs 40% for Jeddah) and average second-half goals (visitors 1.0 vs hosts 0.87) suggest Al Faisaly will not only score earlier but also maintain the lead. Therefore the strongest market signal is Al Faisaly leading at half-time and the visitors winning at full-time (2/2).