Jeddah vs Al Najma: match statistics

Al Najma sit 4th, while Jeddah are 14th, which already indicates a clear difference in potential. The visitors have collected 7 points from their last 5 matches, recording 2 wins and a draw, whereas the hosts have managed only 5 points and suffered 2 defeats. Jeddah conceded as many as 12 goals during this period—an average of 2.4 per match—while scoring just 4. Al Najma are not flawless defensively either, having conceded 8 goals in 5 appearances, but their current run ends with two consecutive victories. Given the hosts’ defensive weaknesses, the visitors have a greater chance of converting their opportunities and securing the win.

BTTS - No has a slight edge, as both teams have scored in just 33% of league matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game. Jeddah have scored only 0.8 goals per match over their last 5 games, while Al Najma have averaged 1.0, which reduces confidence that both sides will find the net. However, the hosts have conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game during this run, and the visitors 1.6, so at least one team scoring remains highly likely. xG over the last five appearances stands at 1.19 for Jeddah and 1.21 for Al Najma, while the BTTS rates in that sequence are only 60% and 40%, respectively. Seasonal data is very limited and contradictory, so greater weight should be given to the low league-wide BTTS frequency and the teams’ moderate current scoring output, pointing to a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as Jeddah conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last five matches, while Al Najma conceded 1.6. Both teams recorded matches with Over 2.5 goals in 60% of cases during this period, supporting the scenario of at least two goals. The average xG from their last five matches stands at 1.19 for Jeddah and 1.21 for Al Najma, while their opponents generated 1.45 and 1.80 xG, respectively. Jeddah scored just 4 goals in five matches, but their current defensive form clearly increases the visitors’ scoring potential, with Al Najma averaging one goal per game. The 2.5 line remains finely balanced, making Over 1.5 the safer option with a clearer edge.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Al Najma win at full-time, as the visitors have averaged 1.4 points per game over their last five matches, compared with Jeddah’s 1.0, and won 40% of those games, versus 20% for the hosts. The first halves of both teams’ matches are often undecided: a half-time draw occurred in 40% of each team’s recent games, while Jeddah scored only 0.4 goals per match before the break. Al Najma show slightly greater attacking potential before half-time, averaging 0.8 goals compared with the hosts’ 0.4; however, both teams conceded 1.2 goals per game during that period, which keeps the possibility of a draw alive. The second half is decisive, with Jeddah conceding an average of 1.2 goals, while Al Najma allowed opponents just 0.4 goals. The hosts’ weak defensive record over the recent period, with an average of 2.4 goals conceded per match compared with 1.6 for the visitors, increases the likelihood of a turnaround in Al Najma’s favour after the break.