Jeju United vs Anyang: match statistics

Anyang holds a clear advantage in offensive efficiency: the visitors scored 8 goals in the last 5 matches versus Jeju’s 4, and away they average 1.43 goals per match with a 15% conversion, while Jeju at home manages only 0.71 goals per match and a 6% conversion. Jeju generates more chances (on average 12.14 shots and 4.86 on target per match) and posts a higher home xG (1.46 vs Anyang’s 1.31 on the road), but this does not translate into goals — the hosts fail to score in 43% of home matches, while the visitors are shut out in only 14% of away games. Defensively both teams are fairly even in actual goals conceded (Jeju 1.14 at home vs Anyang 1.00 away), yet Anyang has a higher xG against on the road (1.75), indicating they allow higher-quality opponent chances. The goal differential confirms the visitors’ edge: Jeju at home has GD -3, Anyang away +3, with a substantially higher home loss rate for Jeju (43% vs 14%). Considering Anyang’s superior shooting efficiency and their goal-scoring form, I predict an away victory, although a draw is possible given both teams have averaged a comparable 1.2 points in the last 5 matches.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 71% (Jeju 71%, Anyang 71%), meaning roughly 7 out of 10 matches see both sides score. Jeju has no clean sheets this season (0%) and concedes an average of 1.14 goals per game, while Anyang scores an average of 1.43 goals per game, so Anyang has a realistic chance to score. Anyang also concedes a high xG (1.75 xG against) and registers more shots on target (4.43 vs 2.71), indicating offensive potential on both sides and a risk of conceding. In the last 5 matches Jeju scores 0.8 goals on average, Anyang 1.6, and both teams conceded an average of 1.2 goals in those fixtures, which sustains the goal-exchange scenario. Therefore I prefer BTTS - Yes with a probability of 75% versus 25% for No.

Both teams have a high share of matches with at least 2 goals: the rate of games with over 1.5 goals is 71% for Jeju and 71% for Anyang, and 71% of matches featured goals from both sides, which strongly supports Over 1.5. xG figures indicate moderate offensive activity: Jeju xG is 1.15 with an average of 1.00 goals per game, Anyang xG 1.31 with an average of 1.43 goals per game; averaging seasonal scored averages, xG and conceded averages (1.43 and 1.75) I estimate 1.05 goals for Jeju and 1.25 for Anyang, totaling 2.30. Over 2.5 occurred less frequently this season (29% for both teams, though it was 40% in the last 5 matches), so I assess Over 2.5 at about 35% (Under 65%). Over 3.5 is unlikely (14% seasonally), therefore Over 3.5 approx. 12% and Under 88%.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: the home side were level at the break in 57% of matches, and the visitors in 86%, which significantly increases the probability of a tied score after 45 minutes. First halves tend to be low-scoring — home teams average 0.29 goals by half-time versus 0.71 for away teams, and the home side have a seasonal percentage of clean first halves at 86%, suggesting frequent 0:0 or low scores before the break. More goals occur after half-time: hosts score at least once after the break in 100% of matches, visitors in 71%, and both teams register scoring matches in 71% of cases, so I expect goals in the second half and an even full-time outcome. Additionally, the seasonal full-time draw rate is 57% for both teams, and the visitors’ xG of 1.31 versus the hosts’ 1.15, along with 4.43 shots on target for the visitors versus 2.71 for the hosts, confirm that any goals are likely to be balanced. Therefore I back HT/FT X/X (draw/draw) as the most probable scenario.