Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs ES Tunis: match statistics

ES Tunis come into this match in significantly better form, having won 4 of their last 5 fixtures and scored 10 goals in total during that run. Over the same period, Jeunesse Sportive Omrane failed to win any match, recording 2 draws and 3 defeats, while their 4:8 goal difference highlights both limited attacking efficiency and defensive problems. The visitors have also made a strong start to the league season, securing maximum points with a 3:2 victory, whereas the hosts lost their only match so far 0:2. The difference in average points from their last five appearances—2.4 for ES Tunis compared with 0.4 for Omrane—strongly reinforces the scenario of an away win. The hosts can rely on home advantage, but current form and greater attacking consistency point towards ES Tunis.

The strongest signal is the very low league BTTS rate of just 28%, with an average of 1.71 goals per match and 86% of fixtures featuring at least one clean sheet. Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scored only 0.8 goals per game across their last five matches, while their average xG was just 0.71, limiting the hosts’ chances of scoring against an in-form opponent. ES Tunis conceded only 0.8 goals per match during this period and allowed opponents an xG of 0.76, while scoring an average of 2.0 goals themselves. Although the hosts have a 60% BTTS rate in their last five outings and concede an average of 1.6 goals, making a goal for the visitors highly likely, Omrane’s weaker attack lends greater support to a BTTS - No scenario, meaning that at least one team fails to score.

The last five matches clearly favor ES Tunis: the team averaged 2.0 goals scored, with an xG of 1.89, while Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scored just 0.8 goals and generated 0.71 xG. The hosts conceded 1.6 goals per match during this period, with a high expected goals against figure of 1.94, so the visitors should create more chances, although this does not necessarily indicate a high-scoring game. ES Tunis defended solidly, conceding an average of 0.8 goals and allowing opponents just 0.76 xG. In addition, the league is exceptionally low-scoring, averaging 1.71 goals per match, with only 14% of games going Over 2.5 goals. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.10 goals leaves a clear margin below this line.

ES Tunis are clearly in stronger current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, while Omrane have failed to win any of their five games, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match. The visitors’ advantage is particularly evident before half-time, as they were leading at the break in 80% of their last five matches and did not concede a first-half goal in any of them, while the hosts were behind after 45 minutes in 60% of cases. Omrane score just 0.4 goals per match before half-time and concede 1.2, further supporting the scenario of early ES Tunis control. After the break, the visitors remain effective, averaging 1.2 goals, making an ES Tunis lead at the break followed by a full-time victory the most likely HT/FT outcome: 1/1.