Juan Pablo II College vs Alianza Lima: match statistics

Alianza Lima have a clearly superior season record: 15 wins and just 2 defeats, while Juan Pablo II College have won 7 of 24 matches and lost 11. The visitors are particularly solid defensively away from home, conceding an average of 0.67 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 42% of games, whereas the hosts allow opponents 1.67 goals on average at home. On the other hand, Alianza score just 1.00 goal per away match, with an average xG of 1.16, so they should not be expected to easily exploit the hosts’ defensive weaknesses. Juan Pablo II College average 1.67 goals scored at home, although they create chances worth only 1.24 xG, indicating the potential to find the net but not to establish sustained control of the game. A draw is the most likely outcome, as 50% of Alianza’s away matches have ended level, while both teams have recorded 2 wins in their last five fixtures.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive, as both sides have recorded BTTS in 50% of their matches this season, compared with a league average of 57%. Juan Pablo II College average 2.33 goals at home, create 2.16 xG and register 7.17 shots on target per match, making a goal against an Alianza defence conceding an average of 0.67 goals highly likely. Alianza Lima average just 1.00 goal, but their last five matches produced xG of 1.98, clearly higher than the hosts’ 1.39. In addition, the hosts conceded an average of 1.6 goals per match during this run, while Alianza scored in 4 of their last 5 matches, strengthening the visitors’ chances of finding the net. The risk of BTTS - No remains significant due to both teams’ 42% clean-sheet rate and the hosts’ season xG against of just 0.80. However, Alianza’s current chance creation shifts the forecast towards BTTS - Yes.

The match profile points to a moderate number of goals: the hosts score an average of 2.33 goals, but Alianza Lima concede just 0.67 goals per away game. The visitors themselves average 1.00 goal, while the hosts’ defence allows only 0.58 goals, limiting the potential for an open, high-scoring game. Across the entire season, at least 4 goals were scored in only 25% of the hosts’ matches and in just 8% of Alianza’s games, while results featuring fewer than 3.5 goals occurred in 75% and 92% of cases, respectively. Alianza’s last five matches also produced Over 2.5 goals in only 20% of games, despite their average xG standing at 1.98. The projected total of 2.35 goals gives a clear betting edge to Under 3.5 goals.

Juan Pablo II College were leading at half-time in 50% of their matches, while Alianza Lima were ahead after 45 minutes in only 25% of games, with the score level at the break in 58% of their fixtures. The hosts average 1.08 goals scored and just 0.33 conceded before half-time, whereas the visitors score only 0.50 goals in this period. The home side’s advantage is even more pronounced across the season: they win 83% of their matches, averaging 2.33 goals and generating an xG of 2.16, compared with Alianza’s 1.00 goal and xG of 1.16. Juan Pablo II College also average 20.25 shots and 7.17 shots on target per match, compared with their opponents’ 10.50 shots and 3.50 on target. The hosts’ last five matches have been less consistent, but the HT/FT scenario of leading at the break and securing a full-time victory remains the outcome best supported by the data.