Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado: match statistics

Deportivo Maldonado have a clearly superior season record: 13 wins and a 40:24 goal difference, while Juventud have won 7 times and conceded 35 goals, scoring 27. The visitors average 1.50 goals per away match, while the hosts concede 1.42 at home, which supports the likelihood of Deportivo Maldonado scoring at least once. However, Juventud have shown a stronger recent points run, collecting 8 points from their last five matches compared with the opponents’ 6, and conceding only 2 goals during that period. The hosts’ poor home finishing remains a concern: they average 1.08 goals and fail to score in 33% of matches, whereas the visitors draw a blank in only 17% of away fixtures. Deportivo Maldonado’s edge in season-long defensive quality, a 15% shot-conversion rate compared with 10%, and a +4 away goal difference give them a slight advantage, although a draw remains a highly realistic outcome.

Although BTTS occurred in 54% of Juventud’s matches and 58% of Deportivo Maldonado’s matches over the course of the season, the current form of both teams clearly supports the BTTS - No option. In their last 5 matches, each team recorded BTTS in only 20% of games, while Juventud scored 3 goals and Deportivo Maldonado 4 during that period. Both defenses are currently performing effectively: the hosts have conceded an average of 0.4 goals per match in their last five outings, compared with 0.6 for the visitors, while Juventud has kept a clean sheet in 46% of its season matches. The visitors’ attack averages 3.92 shots on target compared with Juventud’s 4.92, but both teams have a low recent goal tally, making the most likely scenario one in which at least one team fails to score.

The recent form of both teams clearly lowers goal expectations: Juventud scored 3 goals in five matches, while Deportivo Maldonado scored 4, averaging 0.6 and 0.8 goals per game, respectively. Over the same period, the hosts conceded just 0.4 goals per match and the visitors 0.6, with none of Juventud’s last five matches and only 20% of Maldonado’s games going Over 2.5 goals. Seasonal data also supports a limited number of high-scoring results, as 77% of Juventud’s matches and 75% of Deportivo Maldonado’s finished Under 3.5 goals. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their matches, while the visitors have failed to score in 17%, further reducing the risk of a very open game. Although the average xG from the last five matches stands at 1.33 for Juventud and 1.50 for Maldonado, both sides have been inefficient in front of goal recently, making Under 3.5 the market best supported by the data.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time: Juventud were level after 45 minutes in 62% of their matches, compared with 42% for Deportivo Maldonado, while in their last five games both teams recorded this outcome in as many as 80% of cases. Recent form confirms a cautious start, with Juventud averaging 0.0 goals before the break and Deportivo Maldonado 0.4; the hosts conceded just 0.2 goals during first halves over this period. After the break, Juventud have greater potential, winning 62% of their matches across the season compared with 42% for the visitors, while averaging 1.69 goals scored and just 0.77 conceded. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in chance creation: their average xG stands at 1.55 versus 1.33 for Deportivo Maldonado, while their number of shots on target is 4.92 compared with 3.92. The X/1 scenario is therefore the most likely: a cagey first half should develop into a Juventud victory at full-time, thanks to their stronger defence and overall quality throughout the match.