Juventude vs Athletic Club: match statistics

Juventude are top of the home table and have won 64% of their matches on home soil, while Athletic Club have won just 23% of their away games. The hosts concede only 0.29 goals per match at home and keep a clean sheet in 79% of their outings, in stark contrast to the visitors’ 1.31 goals conceded and just 15% clean-sheet rate. Juventude’s superiority is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 1.58 compared with Athletic’s 0.95, while shots on target total 5.36 versus 2.46. The last five matches reinforce this trend, with the hosts unbeaten on a record of 2 wins and 3 draws, whereas the visitors have lost 4 of their last 5 games and conceded 11 goals in the process. Athletic have a high 46% away-draw rate, so a stalemate remains a realistic alternative; however, Juventude’s defensive solidity points towards a home win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Juventude kept a clean sheet in 36% of their matches this season, while Athletic Club failed to score in 31% of their games. The hosts have been particularly solid defensively recently: they conceded just 3 goals in their previous five matches, averaging 0.6 per game. Athletic create relatively few chances, with an average xG of 0.95 and only 2.46 shots on target per match, limiting their chances of breaking down Juventude’s defence. On the other hand, the visitors have recently conceded an average of 2.2 goals, while their average xG against stands at 1.88, making a Juventude goal with at least one team failing to score the most likely scenario. Additionally, both teams recorded BTTS in only 40% of their last five matches, compared with the league average of 48%.

Juventude have a solid foundation for scoring, averaging 1.48 xG and 4.14 shots on target per match, while Athletic concede an average of 1.31 goals and allow opponents 1.88 xG. However, the visitors are offensively limited: their average xG is only 0.95, alongside 2.46 shots on target, while Juventude concede just 0.93 goals per home match. Across the season, matches involving both teams have finished Under 3.5 goals in 86% and 85% of cases, respectively, which is a very strong signal against a high-scoring game. Even despite Athletic’s recent defensive struggles, having conceded 11 goals in five matches, Juventude’s profile—with only 3 goals conceded over the same period—should keep the total goals tally down. The strongest edge therefore lies with Under 3.5 goals, with a projected total of 2.25 goals in the match.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Juventude were level at the break in 43% of their matches and Athletic Club in 46%; in the hosts’ last five games, this figure rose as high as 60%. The opening phase should be cautious: Juventude average 0.64 goals before half-time, compared with Athletic’s 0.38, while both teams kept a clean sheet at the break in 64% and 69% of their matches, respectively. After the interval, the advantage shifts to Juventude, who conceded an average of just 0.2 goals in the second half across their last five matches, while Athletic conceded 1.6. The hosts are also in clearly better late-game form: they collected 11 points from their last five matches compared with their opponents’ 3, while Athletic lost 4 of those 5 games. In addition, Juventude create more chances, with an average xG of 1.48 compared with Athletic’s 0.95, supporting the HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time followed by a home win at full-time.