Juventude vs São Bernardo: match statistics

Juventude sit 2nd in the table and have won 63% of their home matches, while 11th-placed São Bernardo have won 50% of their away games. The strongest case for the hosts is their defensive record: at home, they concede an average of 0.38 goals and keep a clean sheet in 75% of matches, compared with the visitors’ 1.00 goals conceded and 31% clean-sheet rate away from home. Juventude also create more chances, posting a home xG of 1.66 compared with São Bernardo’s away xG of 1.33, while the visitors’ defence allows chances worth an average xG of 1.74. However, the visitors remain dangerous: they score an average of 1.56 goals away from home, compared with the hosts’ 1.38 at home, and have won three of their last five matches while conceding just three goals. Both teams have three wins in their last five games, but Juventude’s significantly tighter defence gives the hosts the edge in a closely contested match.

Across the full season, both teams scored in 56% of Juventude’s matches and 63% of São Bernardo’s, which supports a BTTS - Yes pick. The visitors average 1.56 goals per match and have failed to score in just 13% of their games, making a goal from them relatively likely. Juventude average 1.19 goals, and although São Bernardo concede just 1.00 on average, they allow opponents chances worth 1.74 xG per match. Recent defensive form calls for caution: over their last five matches, the hosts conceded an average of 0.8 goals and the visitors 0.6, with BTTS rates of 20% and 40%, respectively. Therefore, the edge for both teams to score is slight.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: this total was recorded in 81% of matches involving the two teams. Although São Bernardo matches went Over 2.5 goals in 56% of cases, compared with 38% for Juventude, the 3.5-goal line was exceeded in only 19% of matches for either team. In their last five matches, both teams averaged 1.4 goals scored, while conceding 0.8 and 0.6 respectively, limiting the prospects of a very high-scoring game. The estimated total of 2.42 goals therefore supports Under 3.5, where the data show a clearer edge than at the 2.5-goal line.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Juventude were level at the break in 75% of their matches, compared with 44% for São Bernardo; over their last five matches, the figures were 60% and 80%, respectively. The visitors have failed to score before half-time in each of their last five matches, weakening the case for them taking an early lead. After the break, the advantage shifts to São Bernardo, who average 1.13 goals in the second half compared with Juventude’s 0.69, and have won 50% of their matches this season against 25% for the hosts. Their last five matches reinforce this pattern: the visitors averaged 1.4 second-half goals and did not lose a single second half, while the hosts conceded an average of 0.6 goals after the break. Therefore, a half-time draw followed by a São Bernardo win is the strongest HT/FT scenario, although Juventude’s frequent draws mean X/X remains a significant alternative.