Juventus II vs Novara: match statistics

Novara come into this match in clearly better form: they have won 3 of their last 5 games, scoring an average of 1.2 goals per match. During the same period, Juventus II failed to win, recording as many as 4 draws and 1 defeat, with a return of just 0.8 points per game compared to Novara’s 1.8. The hosts have scored 5 goals in their last five matches but conceded 7—an average of 1.4 per game—which highlights their defensive struggles. Novara have scored 6 goals and conceded 5, combining greater efficiency with more consistent off-the-ball performance. Juventus II’s high number of draws increases the likelihood of a share of the points, but Novara’s current three-match winning streak gives the visitors the strongest case for victory.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive, as Juventus II have seen both teams score in 3 of their last 5 matches (60%), while Novara have done so in 2 of 5 (40%). During this period, the hosts conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match, while Novara scored 1.2 goals per game, giving the visitors a realistic chance of finding the net. At the same time, Juventus II recorded an average xG of 1.37, while Novara allowed opponents an xG of 1.47, so the hosts should create enough chances to score. The teams’ recent aggregate goal records—Juventus II’s 5:7 and Novara’s 6:5—point to matches featuring at least one defensive weakness on both sides; therefore, BTTS - Yes is narrowly preferred.

In their last five matches, Juventus II averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Novara scored 1.2 goals and conceded 1.0. The combined goal average from these respective runs stands at 2.4 and 2.2, with only 40% of matches for each team exceeding the 2.5-goal line. At the same time, the xG figures point to a moderate number of chances: 1.37 for Juventus II’s attack and 1.28 for Novara, against 1.52 and 1.47 xG allowed by their respective defenses. A projected total of 2.45 goals gives a realistic chance of two or three goals, but significantly reduces the likelihood of four or more. Therefore, the safest pick is Under 3.5 goals, rated at 76%.

Seasonal data is unavailable, so the greatest weight is given to the last five matches, in which Juventus II drew four times and failed to win any of them. The hosts were level at the break in three of those five games, while Novara averaged 1.2 first-half goals compared with Juventus II’s 0.8. Novara won three of its last five matches and has averaged 1.8 points per game, compared with just 0.8 for Juventus II, further strengthening the visitors’ advantage with regard to the full-time result. After the break, Juventus II conceded an average of 1.0 goal and scored just 0.2, so with an evenly matched opening half, the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Novara win: X/2.