Juventus II vs Ternana: match statistics

I back the home win because Juventus II average 1.4 goals scored at home with xG 1.40 versus Ternana’s away figures of only 1.06 goals and xG 1.29. The hosts register 3.87 shots on target at home compared to the visitors’ 2.94, and the home conversion rate is 14% versus 11% for Ternana, indicating an advantage in quality of chances. Additionally, Juventus II fail to score in only 20% of home games, while the visitors are goalless in 38% of away matches, which increases the hosts’ likelihood of finding the net. Juventus’s weakness is defence: in the last 5 matches they conceded 9 goals (1.8 per game) versus Ternana’s 5 (1.0), which raises the probability of a draw or an away win. Taking this into account, I estimate the probabilities at 50% for the home side, 28% for a draw and 22% for the visitors.

Statistical analysis supports a BTTS - Yes scenario: Juventus II has a season BTTS rate of 56% and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Ternana is 44% seasonally and 60% in the last 5, yielding an average BTTS occurrence of 70% across their last five meetings. Juventus II scores 1.31 goals per match with xG 1.94 and 4.88 shots on target, whereas Ternana averages 1.06 goals per match with xG 1.29 and 2.94 shots on target; additionally, Ternana generated 1.79 xG in the last five matches, so they create chances despite low conversion. Both teams concede goals — Juventus II concedes 1.13 goals seasonally (last 5: 1.8), Ternana 0.88 (last 5: 1.0), and clean sheet percentages are only 25% and 31%, so a clean sheet is not guaranteed. Counterarguments: Ternana fail to score in 38% of away matches and Juventus II are blanked in 19% of their games, but the xG advantage (1.94 vs 1.29), superior shots on target (4.88 vs 2.94) and strong recent BTTS form argue in favor of 'Yes'.

xG analysis points to total expected goals around 2.83: Juventus II has xG_for 1.94 vs Ternana's xG_against 1.24, implying home expected goals ≈1.59, while Ternana has xG_for 1.29 vs home xG_against 1.18 -> away expected goals ≈1.24. Season-to-date shares of matches over 1.5 are 88% for Juventus II and 50% for Ternana, therefore Over 1.5 is the strongest signal (I estimate ~78%). Season Over 2.5 rates are 38% (home) and 31% (away), but in the last 5 home matches Over 2.5 was 80%, which together with xG_total 2.83 yields a moderate probability for Over 2.5 (~56%). Over 3.5 is unlikely: season rates only 6%/13% and xG_total well below 3.5, so I assess Over 3.5 at about 12%. Additionally, the home side averages 14.63 shots and 4.88 on target, the visitors 9.75/2.94; these volumes and conversion rates (9% and 11%) support a minimum two-goal scenario.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X). The home team drew at the break in 44% of home matches, the away team drew at the break in 69% of away matches, giving an average of about a 56% chance of a draw at the break. Full-time outcome analysis shows roughly a 38% chance of a home win (average of 50% home wins for Juve II and 25% losses for Ternana away = 37.5%), ~32% for a draw (average of 19% and 44% = 31.5%) and ~31% for an away win, so a draw at full-time is a strong single signal. Additionally, xG 1.94 for the home side vs 1.29 for the visitors and 14.63 shots for the home team against 9.75 for the visitors indicate an advantage for Juve II, but the low number of first-half goals (scoredAVGHT_home 0.63 vs scoredAVGHT_away 0.38 and AVGHT_home 1.19 vs AVGHT_away 0.75) favors maintaining the draw, hence X/X is rated at 22%, with 1/1 at 18% and X/1 and X/2 at 17% each.