København vs Horsens: match statistics

København lead the table and have won all 3 of their home matches, while Horsens have won 67% of their away games but have also lost 33%. The hosts create significantly more chances, averaging 19.33 shots and 7.33 on target per match, compared with 11 and 5.67 for Horsens, while their average xG stands at 2.09 versus 1.37 for the visitors. Both teams are effective at home and away, averaging 2.67 goals per match, but København have better defensive control, conceding an average of 1.00 goal compared with Horsens’ 1.67. Their form is very similar, with both teams winning 4 of their last 5 matches; however, København scored 14 goals during that period and are on a run of three consecutive home wins. Horsens have scored 15 goals in their last five appearances, so they should pose a threat to the hosts, but the superior quality of chances created and home advantage point to a København victory.

Seasonal data clearly supports goals from both sides: København have recorded BTTS in 75% of matches, while Horsens are at 100%, compared with the league average of 56%. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, with the hosts conceding an average of 1.75 goals per match and the visitors 1.67. Horsens score an average of 2.67 goals and register 5.67 shots on target per game, strengthening their chances of scoring against a København defence with an xG against of 1.78. København have a lower seasonal average of 1.25 goals, but they have scored 2.8 goals per game across their last five matches with an xG of 1.86, so they should capitalise on the fact that their opponents are still yet to keep a clean sheet. The only concern is the hosts' BTTS rate of 40% across their last five outings, but the attacking form of both sides and their regular concessions point towards the BTTS - Yes scenario.

The strongest choice is Over 1.5, as at least two goals were scored in 100% of the previous meetings between the two teams. København have averaged 2.8 goals in their last five matches, while Horsens have averaged 3.0, with their opponents conceding 1.2 and 1.4 goals per game, respectively. The chance-quality data also points to an open game: the average xG from the last five matches stands at 1.86 for the home side and 1.50 for the visitors. Horsens average 5.67 shots on target per match compared to København's 4.25, and neither team has kept a clean sheet so far. Over 2.5 also has solid foundations, but the 1.5 line provides a significantly larger safety margin with a projected 3.35 goals.

The strongest scenario is København leading at the break and maintaining the win, as the hosts were ahead at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches, compared with 3 such instances for Horsens. During this period, København averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded before the break, while Horsens also conceded an average of 0.8 goals in the first halves. The hosts are additionally on a four-match winning streak and have averaged 2.8 goals scored and just 1.2 conceded across their last 5 matches. Horsens remain dangerous after the interval, averaging 2.0 goals in the second half and winning 80% of these periods, which is why turnaround scenarios and away wins have been given significant consideration. Nevertheless, København also have a positive second-half record, averaging 1.4 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded, which supports the likelihood of them defending their first-half lead.