Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Morogoro: match statistics
Full analysis and pick in the app
Check the betting analysis, pick, value bet and full reasoning for this match.
Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Morogoro: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Kagera Sugar play Polisi Morogoro in Ligi kuu Bara (Tanzania). The match date is 17 October 2026. Venue: Kaitaba Stadium.
Current form
Kagera Sugar: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Polisi Morogoro: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Kagera Sugar scores 1.14 and concedes 2.14 goals per match. Polisi Morogoro scores 1.43 and concedes 1.29. League average: 2.56 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Kagera Sugar 71%, Polisi Morogoro 57%. Over 2.5: Kagera Sugar 43%, Polisi Morogoro 43%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 44%.
xG, shots and style
Polisi Morogoro has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.41. Kagera Sugar: 7.7 shots per match, Polisi Morogoro: 8.7.
Match halves
Kagera Sugar: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.43. Polisi Morogoro: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 0.57.
Goals by minute
Kagera Sugar: 31-45+ (3 goals). Polisi Morogoro: 31-45+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligi kuu Bara: 2.56 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 44%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Before the match
1X2 odds
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Kagera Sugar | Polisi Morogoro | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 48% | 46% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Polisi Morogoro is 50% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Kagera Sugar · 1.2 pts / match - Polisi Morogoro
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Polisi Morogoro is 25% better for: goals scored per match.
1.14 goals / match - Kagera Sugar · 1.43 goals / match - Polisi Morogoro
Polisi Morogoro is 66% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.14 goals / match - Kagera Sugar · 1.29 goals / match - Polisi Morogoro
Kagera Sugar scores in 71% of matches (5 of 7 matches), while Polisi Morogoro keeps a clean sheet in 43% (3 of 7 matches).
Polisi Morogoro scores in 100% of matches (7 of 7 matches), while Kagera Sugar keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Kagera Sugar
Over / Under - Polisi Morogoro
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Polisi Morogoro is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.14 pts / match - Kagera Sugar · 1.43 pts / match - Polisi Morogoro
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Kagera Sugar - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 14%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Polisi Morogoro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Kagera Sugar
Polisi Morogoro
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligi kuu Bara).
Teams vs league
| Kagera Sugar | Liga | Polisi Morogoro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.29 | 2.56 | ▲ 2.71 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 71% | 49% | ▲ 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 43% | 44% | • 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 26% | ▲ 43% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 76% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | • 71% | 71% | • 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
FAQ
When do Kagera Sugar and Polisi Morogoro play?
Kagera Sugar face Polisi Morogoro on 17 October 2026 in Ligi kuu Bara at Kaitaba Stadium. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.
What do the goal statistics show before Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Morogoro?
Kagera Sugar score 1.14 goals per game on average and Polisi Morogoro 1.43. The Ligi kuu Bara average is 2.56 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 71% of Kagera Sugar's matches and 57% of Polisi Morogoro's.
What form are Kagera Sugar and Polisi Morogoro in?
Over the last 5 games Kagera Sugar have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Polisi Morogoro 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Morogoro?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Morogoro: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.