Kahraba Ismailia vs Ghazl El Mehalla: match statistics

I back the draw because both teams regularly share points: Kahraba in the last 5 matches has 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss, while Ghazl has 1 win and 4 draws. Additionally, the hosts have a 0% home win rate and 36% draws at their stadium, whereas the visitors record as many as 55% draws away. Defensively the advantage lies with the visitors — Ghazl concedes on average 1.09 goals away and has 45% clean sheets, while Kahraba concedes 2.00 goals at home and has only 7% clean sheets. Offensively the hosts create slightly more (2.93 shots on target and xG 1.11 at home versus 2.27 shots on target and xG 1.06 for the visitors), however both teams have low goal averages: 1.00 goal for Kahraba at home vs 0.91 goals for Ghazl away. Considering negative xG differentials (Kahraba -0.52 vs Ghazl -0.34) and higher PPG for the visitors in the last 5 matches (1.4 vs 0.8), I estimate the probability of a draw at 60%, an away win at 25% and a home win at 15%.

Kahraba at home scores only 0.38 goals per game this season and has a seasonal BTTS rate of 23%, while keeping a clean sheet in 77% of home appearances, which strongly favors a No Goal scenario. Ghazl El Mehalla has a higher goals-per-game average of 0.91 and a conversion rate of 11% versus the home side's 5%, with similar xG (1.06 for the away side vs 1.09 for the home side), so they have a realistic basis to score at least once. However, the last 5 matches show mixed signals: Kahraba recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 (4/5), scoring 4 and conceding 5, while Ghazl in their last 5 scored 3 and conceded 2, which does not provide a clear edge for the BTTS scenario. Considering the season home clean sheet rate of 77% and Kahraba’s low scoring average of 0.38, I estimate BTTS probability at around 30% and 70% for No Goal; therefore I recommend selecting 'No'.

xG and statistical analysis indicate expected goals of 1.25 for Kahraba (xG attack 1.09 vs xG against opponents 1.40) and 1.17 for Ghazl (xG attack 1.06 vs xG against opponents 1.28), totaling approximately 2.42 expected goals. Based on this, a Poisson distribution yields about a 70% probability for Over 1.5, ~43% for Over 2.5 and only ~22% for Over 3.5 (conversely: Under 1.5 ~30%, Under 2.5 ~57%, Under 3.5 ~78%). Additionally, Kahraba records 77% of matches with a clean sheet this season and only 8% of home matches exceed 2.5 goals, while the home-side shot conversion is 5% versus 11% for the away side, which limits a high-scoring scenario. Ghazl, although having 36% of season matches with >2.5 goals and 64% above 1.5, have an away xG in the last 5 matches of 1.35 versus 0.75 for the home side, so their offense does not guarantee breaching high thresholds. As a result, the strongest signal from the data is Under 3.5 (recommended pick, ~78% probability).

The most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a draw at Full-Time (X/X) — the home side are level at the break in 85% of matches, while the visitors are level at the break in 55% of fixtures, which provides a strong signal for a draw at the break. Hosts keep a clean sheet at Half-Time in 92% of home games and score on average only 0.15 goals before the break versus 0.45 for the visitors, so the first half should be low-scoring. For Full-Time the statistics also favor a draw: hosts record draws in 77% of home matches, and the teams’ overall xG is similar (1.09 for the home side vs 1.06 for the visitors), suggesting no clear offensive advantage. After the break the visitors are, however, more active — their shot conversion is 11% versus 5% for the hosts, second-half goals average 0.45 vs 0.23 and in the last five matches the visitors’ points after the break are 1.6 vs 1.0 for the hosts — therefore X/2 is the most important alternative. Based on this I assigned the highest probability to X/X (52%), then X/2 (18%) and X/1 (11%), with the remaining scenarios considered unlikely.