Kahraba Ismailia vs Ismaily SC: match statistics

Kahraba Ismailia are the favorites: the hosts have scored 24 goals this season versus Ismaily’s 11 and have netted 5 goals in their last 5 matches while the visitors have managed only 1 in the same period. At home Kahraba averages 1.00 goals, 3.08 shots on target and a conversion rate of 11%, whereas Ismaily away records 0.17 goals per match, 2.00 shots on target and a 2% conversion. Defensively the hosts are vulnerable — they concede 2.08 goals at home on average (xG against 1.64), while Ismaily concedes 1.08 away (xG against 1.36), which indicates the visitors limit chances better but create few themselves. Form supports Kahraba’s edge: 1.2 points on average in the last 5 matches (record 1-3-1) versus only 0.4 points for Ismaily (0-2-3). Considering the higher shot volume (9.15 vs 7.42), superior attacking xG (1.14 vs 0.98) and the fact that Ismaily fail to score in 83% of their away matches, I forecast a home win, though the game could produce a few goals (Kahraba’s home matches average 3.08 goals).

I back No for BTTS because Ismaily have scored only 11 goals this season (0.17 goals per match) and failed to score in 83% of their games. Kahraba show 55% home BTTS and 60% in their last 5, but hosts average just 0.82 goals per home match (24 goals this season) with 2.91 shots on target and a 10% finishing rate. xG indicates similar potential (home xG 1.03 vs away xG 0.98), yet Ismaily’s last 5 matches show xG 1.12 but only 0.2 goals scored, highlighting a lack of finishing. Additionally, the away side have only 8% BTTS on the road and a 2% conversion rate, which strongly argues against the visitors scoring; league average goals is 1.98. Based on this I estimate 25% for 'yes' and 75% for 'no' and recommend the 'no' bet.

xG analysis and seasonal metrics indicate a real chance of at least two goals in this match. Home team average xG is 1.03 and xG against Ismaily is 1.36, yielding an expected home xG of ~1.20; similarly for the visitors (0.98 and 1.34) we get ~1.16, totaling ~2.36 xG. Season figures show the home side scores 0.82 goals/match and has 73% of games over 1.5 and 64% over 2.5, while Ismaily scores only 0.17 goals/match and has 0% of matches over 2.5. The efficiency gap is visible in shot conversion (10% home vs 2% away) and in shots on target (2.91 vs 2.0), which suggests goals will come mainly from the home team and reduces confidence in Over 2.5 goals. As a result, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (highest probability with acceptable risk).

At half-time I most often observe a draw: hosts are level at the break in 45% of matches and visitors in 50%, with half-time goals averaging 0.27 (home) vs 0.08 (away), indicating a low scoring tempo in the first half. In the second half the hosts significantly increase their activity — on average 0.55 goals scored in the second half and 1.45 average goals in the second halves of their matches, while the visitors register only 0.08 and 0.67 respectively — therefore most goals occur after the break in favor of the home team. Additionally, home teams register more shots on target (2.91 vs 2.00) and have a higher conversion rate (10% conversion vs 2% for the visitors), which raises the probability that they will break the draw in the second half. Seasonal figures confirm the home advantage: seasonal average points 0.73 vs 0.42 and win percentages 18% versus 8% for the visitors suggest a greater chance of a home victory despite low overall efficiency. For this reason I assign the highest probability, 35%, to the scenario draw at half-time and home win at full-time (X/1), with lower weights for 1/1 (20%) and X/X (16%) and smaller shares for the remaining variants.