Kaisar vs Kairat: match statistics
Kaisar vs Kairat: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Kaisar played Kairat in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match was played on 6 May 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Kaisar: 0-4-1, 0.80 points/match. Kairat: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Kaisar scores 0.50 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Kairat scores 1.50 and concedes 0.38. League average: 2.06 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Kaisar 50%, Kairat 25%. Over 2.5: Kaisar 0%, Kairat 25%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 33%.
xG, shots and style
Kairat has higher xG: 1.69 vs 1.26. Kaisar: 12.3 shots per match, Kairat: 15.5.
Match halves
Kaisar: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.00. Kairat: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Kaisar: 31-45+ (3 goals). Kairat: 16-30 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.06 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 33%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-2-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Kairat is the clear favorite: they have scored 12 goals away this season, while Kaisar have only 4 goals at home. The visitors generate higher-quality chances — Kairat’s average away xG is 1.69 versus the hosts’ 1.29 xG; they average 5 shots on target per game compared to Kaisar’s 3.8 and display a superior conversion rate (approx. 5% vs 4%). Defensively Kairat concede an average of 0.25 goals away and register 75% clean sheets, whereas Kaisar concede 0.6 goals at home and have 40% clean sheets. Kaisar have 0% home wins and 100% draws at home, with 40% of matches without scoring versus 25% for Kairat, and over the last 5 matches Kaisar have averaged 1.2 points per game compared to Kairat’s 1.6, which further favors the visitors. Considering the xG advantage, higher number of shots on target and superior defensive metrics, a Kairat win is most likely, with a moderate probability of a draw.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Season metrics strongly argue against BTTS: Kaisar and Kairat have a season rate of matches with both teams scoring of only 25%, while each side records clean sheets in 75% of matches. Average goals conceded are very low — Kaisar concedes 0.5 goals at home, Kairat concedes just 0.25 goals away, which reduces the probability of Goal/Goal. The last 5 matches partially contradict this, with BTTS in the last 5 at 80% for Kaisar and 60% for Kairat, with average goals 1.0 (home) vs 1.4 (away). Season xG is identical (1.69 vs 1.69), but home conversion is 14% versus 5% for the away side on equal 5.0 shots on target, meaning Kaisar converts chances more often than Kairat. Weighing the season-long low BTTS signal (25%) and high clean sheet rates (75%) above the short-term last-5 run, I consider the 'No' scenario more likely.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I estimate expected goals at approximately 1.45 for Kaisar and 1.15 for Kairat, total 2.60. Base xG estimate: both teams have xG_for 1.69, with opposing xG of 0.75 (Kaisar’s opponent) and 1.10 (Kairat’s opponent), yielding xG‑base of roughly 1.22 for Kaisar and 1.40 for Kairat before adjustments. I adjusted these values for shot efficiency: Kaisar averages 16 shots with a 14% conversion (seasonal home average 2.25 goals), while Kairat averages 15 shots with 5% conversion (0.75 goals away), hence the uplift for Kaisar in the final model. With a combined expected total of 2.60 the Poisson distribution gives probability of Over 1.5 around 73%, Over 2.5 around 48% and Over 3.5 around 26%, so the strongest and most confident signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, Kaisar’s season frequency of matches over 1.5 is 75%, and the league average is 2.06 goals per game, which further supports the Over 1.5 selection.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Kaisar has a clear shooting advantage: on average 2.25 goals per match versus 0.75 for Kairat, and scores on average 1.0 goal by half-time compared to 0.5 for their opponents. In the last 5 matches Kaisar led at the break in 60% of games (3 of 5), while Kairat did so in only 20% (1 of 5), indicating the home side more frequently holds a lead after 45 minutes. Despite identical xG (1.69 vs 1.69), the hosts are markedly more efficient — shot conversion 14% versus 5% for the visitors and an average of 16 shots taken versus 15 translate into more Kaisar goals. Additionally Kaisar is more dangerous after the break: they score on average 1.25 goals in the second half and in 75% of matches they find the net at least once after half-time, so maintaining and extending a lead to full-time is very likely. On this basis the most probable scenario is Kaisar leading at half-time and ultimately winning the match (1/1), hence the recommended HT/FT selection is '1/1'.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Kaisar | Kairat | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.13 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Kairat is 175% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Kaisar · 2.2 pts / match - Kairat
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Kairat is 200% better for: goals scored per match.
0.5 goals / match - Kaisar · 1.5 goals / match - Kairat
Kairat is 163% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Kaisar · 0.38 goals / match - Kairat
Kaisar scores in 50% of matches (4 of 8 matches), while Kairat keeps a clean sheet in 75% (6 of 8 matches).
Kairat scores in 88% of matches (7 of 8 matches), while Kaisar keeps a clean sheet in 25% (2 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Kaisar
Over / Under - Kairat
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Kaisar is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.63 pts / match - Kaisar · 1.38 pts / match - Kairat
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Kaisar - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 0%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Kairat - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 63%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Kaisar
Kairat
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Kaisar | Liga | Kairat | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.50 | 2.06 | ▼ 1.88 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 50% | 48% | ▼ 25% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 0% | 33% | ▼ 25% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 25% | 31% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 63% | 61% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 50% | 67% | ▼ 50% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Kaisar 0 - 2 - 0 Kairat. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Kaisar vs Kairat?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Kaisar 1:2 Kairat. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Kaisar and Kairat?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Kaisar won 0, Kairat won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Kaisar vs Kairat?
Kaisar score 0.50 goals per game on average and Kairat 1.50. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.06 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 33% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Kaisar's matches and 25% of Kairat's.
What form are Kaisar and Kairat in?
Over the last 5 games Kaisar have a 0-4-1 record (0.80 points per game) and Kairat 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Kaisar vs Kairat?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.