Kaisar vs Tobol: match statistics
Kaisar vs Tobol: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Kaisar played Tobol in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match was played on 17 May 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Kaisar: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match. Tobol: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Kaisar scores 0.50 and concedes 1.30 goals per match. Tobol scores 0.89 and concedes 1.56. League average: 2.08 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Kaisar 50%, Tobol 56%. Over 2.5: Kaisar 20%, Tobol 44%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 35%.
xG, shots and style
Tobol has higher xG: 1.43 vs 1.26. Kaisar: 12.2 shots per match, Tobol: 13.1.
Match halves
Kaisar: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.10. Tobol: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.44.
Goals by minute
Kaisar: 31-45+ (3 goals). Tobol: 0-15 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.08 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 35%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a draw (X): Kaisar have not won at home yet — 0% home wins and as many as 83% of home matches end in a draw, with an average of 0.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per home game. Tobol show better overall form in the last five matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss and an average of 2 points per match) and have scored 6 goals in their last 5 fixtures, but are catastrophic away — 100% away losses, averaging 0.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away match. Kaisar create more high-quality chances at home: 3.83 shots on target per match and xG 1.27 at home versus 2.4 shots on target and xG 1.15 for Tobol away. Tobol’s away efficiency is very low (conversion 4% and 60% of away matches go goalless for them), while Kaisar have a lower share of matches without scoring (33%) and 33% clean sheets at home, favoring the hosts defensively. Considering similar xG (1.27 vs 1.15), stronger home defence (0.83 goals conceded at home) and Kaisar’s high share of home draws, a low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome; a home win is more probable than an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The signal for BTTS - Yes is strong: Kaisar has a season BTTS rate of 75% and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Tobol, despite a season BTTS of 40%, improved to 60% over the last five. Kaisar averages 1.5 goals per match this season with xG 1.77 and records 4.75 shots on target per game; Tobol concedes 2.0 goals per match statistically with xG against 1.59, which increases the likelihood Kaisar will score. Tobol scores only 0.4 goals per season on average and has a low shot conversion of 4%, however in the last 5 matches the visitors generate xG 1.84 and score 1.2 goals on average, while Kaisar concedes 1.6 goals on average in their last 5. Additionally, Kaisar has only 25% clean sheets this season (concedes in 75% of matches), so weighing seasonal and recent form I assign BTTS 66% vs 34% and tip 'yes' as the strongest signal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals are estimated at Kaisar 1.68 (xG attack 1.77 vs Tobol defense average 1.59) and Tobol 1.35 (xG attack 1.15 vs Kaisar defense average 1.55), total 3.03. With a total of 3.03 the Poisson distribution gives ~81% probability of Over 1.5 goals and ~58% probability of Over 2.5 goals. Kaisar averages 16.0 shots and 4.75 on target per match with a conversion rate of 9.0%, while Tobol has 10.8 shots, 2.4 on target and a 4.0% conversion, indicating Kaisar’s superiority in creating chances. Additionally, Tobol concedes on average 2.0 goals per game this season and has 0% clean sheets, and Kaisar at home has 75% of matches with both teams scoring and 50% of matches Over 2.5 goals, which supports a minimum two-goal scenario. Given these data the best choice is Over 1.5, as it is the strongest statistical signal based on xG, shot volume and Tobol’s defensive vulnerability.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: the home side were level at the break in 3 of 4 matches (75%), and the visitors in 3 of 5 (60%), with average first-half goals of 0.75 for the home team and 0.2 for the away side. After the break there is a strong probability of a home victory due to the hosts' offensive superiority — the home team posts an xG of 1.77 versus 1.15 for the visitors, averages 16 shots and 4.75 on target per match compared to 10.8 and 2.4 for the away team, and demonstrates higher conversion efficiency (9% vs 4%). Additionally, the hosts have scored 3 goals in minutes 46–60 while the visitors conceded 2 in the same interval, suggesting the home side frequently breaks the deadlock soon after half-time. Season-long figures further support favoring the home team: they have a 50% win rate and average 1.5 goals per game versus 0.4 for the visitors, who on average concede 2.0 goals per match. Consequently the strongest signal is a Half-Time/Full-Time draw at the break and home win by full-time (X/1), with 1/1 and X/X remaining as alternative, less likely outcomes.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Kaisar | Tobol | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 26% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.13 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tobol is 133% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Kaisar · 1.4 pts / match - Tobol
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tobol is 78% better for: goals scored per match.
0.5 goals / match - Kaisar · 0.89 goals / match - Tobol
Kaisar is 20% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.3 goals / match - Kaisar · 1.56 goals / match - Tobol
Kaisar scores in 50% of matches (5 of 10 matches), while Tobol keeps a clean sheet in 11% (1 of 9 matches).
Tobol scores in 67% of matches (6 of 9 matches), while Kaisar keeps a clean sheet in 20% (2 of 10 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Kaisar
Over / Under - Tobol
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Kaisar is 40% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.4 pts / match - Kaisar · 1 pts / match - Tobol
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Kaisar - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 0%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Tobol - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 22%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Kaisar
Tobol
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Kaisar | Liga | Tobol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.80 | 2.08 | ▲ 2.44 |
| Both teams scored | • 50% | 49% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 20% | 35% | ▲ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 20% | 31% | ▼ 11% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 60% | 56% | • 56% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 60% | 70% | ▲ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Kaisar 0 - 1 - 1 Tobol. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Kaisar vs Tobol?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Kaisar 2:1 Tobol. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Kaisar and Tobol?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Kaisar won 0, Tobol won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Kaisar vs Tobol?
Kaisar score 0.50 goals per game on average and Tobol 0.89. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.08 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 35% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Kaisar's matches and 56% of Tobol's.
What form are Kaisar and Tobol in?
Over the last 5 games Kaisar have a 0-3-2 record (0.60 points per game) and Tobol 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Kaisar vs Tobol?
The statistical background for Kaisar vs Tobol — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.