Kalisz vs Elana Toruń: match statistics

Elana Toruń create significantly more chances away from home: their average xG stands at 1.92 compared with Kalisz’s 1.21 at home, while their number of shots on target is 7.5 versus 3.5 for the hosts. The visitors average 1.5 goals scored away from home and have failed to find the net in none of their away matches, whereas Kalisz score just 0.5 goals at home and have failed to score in 50% of their matches. Kalisz do have the better defensive record in terms of goals conceded, allowing an average of 0.5 goals, but they permit opponents an xG of 1.67, indicating that their defensive results so far have been better than their underlying performance. Elana are vulnerable at the back, conceding 2 goals per away match and keeping no clean sheets, so the hosts have a realistic chance of scoring. However, the visitors’ advantage in chance creation points to a narrow win for Elana. Both teams have collected 5 points from their last five matches, so this is not a one-sided prediction; nevertheless, Elana possess the greater attacking potential.

Seasonal data strongly support goals for both sides: Kalisz and Elana Toruń have a BTTS rate of 100%, and neither team has kept a clean sheet yet. Both teams concede an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Kalisz scores 1.67 and Elana 1.50. Their attacking potential is confirmed by high xG figures: 2.16 for the hosts and 1.92 for the visitors, while Elana averages 7.5 shots on target per game compared with Kalisz’s 5.0. Kalisz’s current finishing is the weaker factor, as they have scored only 0.8 goals per match across their last 5 fixtures and recorded BTTS in 40% of games. However, Elana has posted BTTS in 100% of matches over the same period and concedes an average of 2.0 goals. With the league-wide BTTS average at 71%, the more likely scenario is that both teams will score at least once.

Neither team has kept a clean sheet in the league yet, and both have scored in 100% of their matches, which significantly reduces the likelihood of a very tight game. Kalisz concede an average of 2.00 goals, while Elana score 1.50 goals per match and register as many as 7.5 shots on target, meaning the visitors should pose a clear attacking threat. Their offensive potential is also reflected in the average xG figures: 2.16 for Kalisz and 1.92 for Elana, although the hosts have scored just 0.8 goals across their last five appearances. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 100% of both teams’ matches so far, while the league average stands at a high 3.53 goals. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as even with Kalisz’s recent drop in finishing efficiency, the hosts’ defensive weaknesses and Elana’s consistent scoring should produce at least two goals.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Elana win, as Kalisz were level at the break in 2 of their 3 matches so far, while Elana were level at half-time in 1 of 2. In their last five matches, the hosts have scored just 0.2 goals per game before the break and failed to score in the first half in 80% of those fixtures. Elana have a clearly superior overall season record: they score 1.5 goals per match and have won 50% of their games, whereas Kalisz have not won a single match and concede an average of 2.0 goals. After the interval, the visitors score an average of 1.0 goal, while Kalisz concede 1.33, which supports the prospect of the match turning in Elana’s favour in the second half. Neither team have kept a clean sheet yet, and their average xG figures stand at 2.16 for Kalisz and 1.92 for Elana, suggesting an open game with a late turnaround in favour of the visitors.