Kalisz vs Unia Swarzędz: match statistics

Unia Swarzędz are showing significantly better form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 15 goals in that span, while Kalisz recorded 2 wins with a 5:9 goal difference. In their only away match so far, the visitors secured a win, scoring 3 goals, and their average away xG stands at 1.91, with 1.03 xG against. Unia create plenty of chances, averaging 16 shots, including 8 on target, while maintaining 54% possession. Kalisz have lost 3 of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game during that period, which, combined with the opponents’ attacking potential, increases the visitors’ chances. The hosts are coming off a 1:0 league victory, but the limited sample of home statistics and their weaker recent trend point towards a Unia win.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by Unia Swarzędz’s highly open profile. In their last 5 matches, they scored an average of 3.0 goals and conceded 1.6, while both teams scored in 80% of those games. Kalisz are on a weaker run, but they have scored 5 goals in their last five appearances—an average of 1.0 per match—while conceding 1.8 goals per game. Unia generate a high 2.16 xG and average 8 shots on target, whereas Kalisz allow opponents 1.84 xG, which clearly strengthens the visitors’ chances of scoring. The hosts create less, with an average xG of 1.11, but Unia’s defence has conceded 8 goals in their last 5 matches and has not kept a clean sheet in the available season data. Additionally, the league records BTTS in 78% of matches and averages 4.67 goals per game, making it more likely that both sides will find the net.

Unia Swarzędz have averaged 3.0 goals scored across their last five matches, with a very high average xG of 2.16. Kalisz conceded 1.8 goals per game during this period and allowed opponents an xG of 1.84, which supports a minimum of two goals for the visitors. Unia’s matches went over 2.5 goals in 100% of their last five appearances, while the same outcome occurred in 60% of Kalisz’s matches. Although the hosts scored only 1.0 goal per game in this run, Unia conceded 1.6 goals per match, leading the model to project a total of 3.46 goals. The strongest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, as the visitors’ attacking strength and Kalisz’s weaker defence clearly reduce the risk of a very low-scoring game.

Unia Swarzędz have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 3.0 goals, while Kalisz have lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring just 1.0 goal per match. The visitors are particularly strong before half-time: they were leading at the break in 60% of their recent matches, did not trail in any of them, and averaged 1.2 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded in the first half. Kalisz were behind at half-time in 40% of their last five matches, while their attacking output in this period amounts to only 0.6 goals. After the interval, Unia continue to create an advantage, averaging 1.8 goals, whereas the hosts concede an average of 1.2 goals in the second half. The most likely outcome is therefore an HT/FT 2/2, with Unia taking the lead before half-time and holding on to it until the final whistle.