Kamatamare Sanuki vs JEF United: match statistics

Kamatamare Sanuki have shown slightly better form in their last five matches, collecting 4 points from 1 win and 1 draw, while JEF United have managed just 1 point and lost 4 times. The hosts have scored 7 goals during this period, 3 more than the visitors, who have found the net only 4 times. Both defenses have clear weaknesses, but Sanuki have conceded 10 goals in five matches compared with JEF United’s 13, increasing the hosts’ chances of making home advantage count. Sanuki’s average points tally over their last five appearances stands at 0.8, compared with just 0.2 for JEF United, making a narrow home win the most likely outcome. However, the draw remains a significant possibility, as neither side has produced a convincing run of results or demonstrated defensive stability.

Seasonal data is unavailable, so the greatest weight is placed on the most recent matches, in which BTTS occurred in 80% of Kamatamare Sanuki’s games and 60% of JEF United’s. During this period, the hosts scored an average of 1.4 goals and conceded 2.0, while the visitors scored just 0.8 goals but allowed their opponents as many as 2.6 goals per match. JEF United’s defensive profile is particularly favorable for a Sanuki goal: their opponents created an average of 1.82 xG, compared with just 1.05 xG conceded by the hosts. The weaker element of the selection is the visitors’ attack; however, their 1.09 xG across the last five matches and Sanuki’s 10 goals conceded indicate that JEF United have a realistic chance of scoring. BTTS - Yes, at a rate above the league average of 40%, is therefore slightly more likely, although the edge over the scenario in which at least one side fails to score remains limited.

The full-season data is incomplete, so the assessment is based primarily on the last five matches and the league average of 2.4 goals. Kamatamare scored 1.4 goals per match during this period, but its xG was only 0.69, while JEF averaged 0.8 goals with an xG of 1.09. Both defenses allowed opponents to score frequently—2.0 and 2.6 goals per match, respectively—which increases the likelihood of at least two goals but does not support a very high-scoring game scenario. Over 2.5 landed in 80% of the hosts’ last matches and 60% of the visitors’ matches, but the projected total of 2.40 goals still more clearly supports Under 3.5, as four or more goals would require finishing above the current xG indicators of both sides. The strongest option is Under 3.5, with an estimated probability of 73%.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Kamatamare Sanuki win at the final whistle, as the hosts have drawn 40% of their first halves in their last five matches, compared with 60% for JEF United. Sanuki have scored just 0.2 goals per game before the break, while JEF have conceded as many as 1.4 goals during that period, giving the hosts a clear opportunity to improve after the interval. In the second halves, Sanuki have averaged 1.2 goals, whereas the visitors have scored only 0.2, and JEF have failed to win any of their last five matches. The full-time form also favours the hosts: they have recorded 1 win and 1 draw in their last five games, while their opponents have suffered 4 defeats and conceded an average of 2.6 goals per match. High second-half activity, with at least two goals scored in 80% of Sanuki’s recent matches and 60% of JEF’s, supports a turnaround after an evenly matched first half.