Kanchanaburi vs Chonburi: match statistics

Kanchanaburi at home averages 13.69 shots and 4 on target per match, translating to 1.23 goals and xG 1.43, while Chonburi away averages 11.29 shots and 3.5 on target, 1.07 goals and xG 1.26. The hosts concede 1.54 goals per home match (xG against 1.48), and the visitors 1.71 (xG against 1.75) and have only 7% clean sheets on the road versus 38% for the hosts. In the last 5 matches Chonburi scored 9 goals and average 1.4 points per match, Kanchanaburi have 5 goals and 1.2 points, with both teams conceding 7 goals in that run. Kanchanaburi fail to score in 31% of home games, while Chonburi fail to score in 50% of away games, with identical conversion of 9%, indicating the hosts' advantage will be the number of created chances. Considering the hosts' superior chance-creation metrics, higher clean sheet rate and Chonburi's weaker away defense, I forecast a home win (estimated 45% vs 30% draw vs 25% away win).

Seasonal metrics show BTTS occurred in 57% of Kanchanaburi’s matches and 50% of Chonburi’s matches, versus a league average of 55%, giving a moderate initial signal for BTTS - Yes. However, the visitors failed to score in 50% of their matches this season and the hosts were kept scoreless in 29% of matches; assuming independence, the product 0.71×0.50≈0.36 suggests roughly a 36% chance both teams will score in the same match. In the last 5 games for each side BTTS was only 40% and average goals in that period are 1.0 for the home team and 1.8 for the away team, indicating recent form does not strongly support a Yes signal. The hosts have xG 1.43 while the visitors concede xG 1.75 (which favors chance creation by Kanchanaburi), but Chonburi’s seasonal numbers (34 goals for and 38 conceded and 50% of matches without a goal) point to high offensive variability. Considering seasonal BTTS 57%/50%, the high share of visitor goalless matches at 50%, and the last 5 matches BTTS 40%, I assess BTTS probability at 42% for Yes and 58% for No, therefore I recommend backing No (No Goal / clean sheet expected).

The xG-based model indicates Kanchanaburi has an expected 1.59 goals (attack xG 1.43 and conceded xG by Chonburi 1.75), and Chonburi 1.34 (attack xG 1.26 and conceded xG by the home side 1.42), totaling 2.93 expected goals. With lambda = 2.93 the Poisson model prices the probability of Over 1.5 goals (>=2) at approximately 79%, Over 2.5 (>=3) at 56% and Over 3.5 (>=4) at 34%. Season data confirm a goal-prone tendency: the share of matches with at least 2 goals is 64% for Kanchanaburi and 71% for Chonburi, while both-teams-to-score rates are 57% and 50%. Kanchanaburi averages 13.93 shots with 4.71 on target (conversion ~10%), Chonburi 11.29 shots and 3.5 on target (conversion ~9%), which further increases the chance of goals from both sides. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal – expected 2.93 goals and a 79% probability of exceeding 1.5 provide a clear edge on that line.

A half-time draw appears most likely: the home side were level at the break in 50% of matches, the visitors in 43%, and first-half goals average only 0.86 (Kanchanaburi) and 0.93 (Chonburi). After the break the statistics favor Kanchanaburi — the hosts score an average of 0.86 goals after half-time, while the visitors concede 1.14 on average, and the home team win the second half in 36% of cases versus 14% for the away side. Additionally, xG favors the hosts: xG_for 1.43 versus 1.26 for the visitors, and the visitors allow 1.75 xG compared to 1.42 for the hosts, indicating a greater threat to Chonburi’s defense. The hosts also have better season-long metrics: 1.43 points per home game versus 1.07 for the visitors and a win percentage of 36% against 29%, so the most consistent pick is X/1 (Half-Time draw, home win) with an estimated probability of around 30%.