Kapaz vs Sumqayıt: match statistics

Kapaz have a clearly better record over their last five matches: they have recorded 2 wins and averaged 1.2 points per game, while Sumqayıt have failed to win any of their five matches and collected just 0.2 points. The hosts have won 67% of their home matches and kept a clean sheet in 67% of them, whereas the visitors have lost all of their away matches so far and have not recorded a single clean sheet. Sumqayıt concede an average of 2 goals away from home, with an xG against of 1.78, indicating that they regularly allow opponents to create high-quality chances. Kapaz are not particularly impressive in terms of chance creation, with a home xG of 1.03 and an average of 2 shots on target, but they should be able to exploit the weaknesses in their opponents’ defence. Both teams average 1 goal in their respective conditions, so a closely contested match is a realistic possibility; however, home advantage and Sumqayıt’s significantly weaker run of form favour the hosts.

The signal for BTTS - Yes is driven primarily by the very weak defensive records of both teams: Kapaz concede an average of 1.67 goals, while Sumqayıt concede 2.00, with neither side keeping a clean sheet. Sumqayıt score an average of 1.00 goal, compared with 0.67 for Kapaz, but the hosts record 3.67 shots on target per match versus 2.00 for the visitors and have a higher season xG: 1.34 to 1.09. In their last five matches, the visitors recorded BTTS in 80% of games and conceded as many as 2.2 goals per match, clearly increasing Kapaz’s chances of finding the net. However, Kapaz have recorded BTTS in only 20% of their last five appearances and score an average of 0.6 goals, so the edge toward a Goal/Goal outcome is slight. Although the league BTTS average is just 43%, the matchup between two defences without a clean sheet marginally favours a result in which both teams score.

Kapaz scores only 0.67 goals per home match, while Sumqayıt concedes as many as 2.00 goals away from home, with its average xG allowed standing at 1.78. The visitors score an average of 1.00 goal, whereas Kapaz’s defense allows opponents 1.67 goals and 1.77 xG per match. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, while Sumqayıt has scored in every match and exceeded the 1.5-goal mark in 100% of its games. The projected total of 2.60 goals points to a clear edge for Over 1.5, whereas the 2.5 line is more evenly balanced due to Kapaz’s poor attacking efficiency, having scored just 0.60 goals per game across its last five matches.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Kapaz victory, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 80% of their last five matches, while Sumqayıt were trailing at the break in 60% of that run. Kapaz failed to score before half-time in any of those five matches, but conceded only 0.4 goals on average, which clearly supports a cautious opening. After the interval, the hosts scored an average of 0.6 goals, while Sumqayıt’s opponents conceded an average of 1.0; the second half produced at least one goal in 100% of Kapaz’s matches and 80% of the visitors’ games. Kapaz’s advantage is also supported by their current form: they won 2 of their last 5 matches, while Sumqayıt failed to win any and lost 4 of 5. The hosts generate more shots on target per match, 3.67 compared with 2.00, and their xG stands at 1.34 versus 1.09 for the visitors, increasing the likelihood of a decisive outcome after the break.