Karcag SE vs Soroksár SC: match statistics

Soroksár SC holds a clear edge in recent form: the visitors have scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches (1.4 goals per match) and won 3 of those 5 (3-1-1), while Karcag SE has managed just 1 goal in their last 5 (0-2-3). Defensively Soroksár also looks superior — the visitors conceded 2 goals in their last 5 matches (0.4 per match) versus 4 conceded by the hosts (0.8 per match). Additionally, the points-per-game differential over the last 5 matches is significant: Soroksár averages 2.0 points per match compared to 0.4 for Karcag, indicating greater consistency in results. In the table the visitors sit 4th, the hosts 7th, and Karcag has yet to record a win this season (0 wins), underscoring their offensive struggles and inability to break the run. Based on these concrete numbers, I predict a victory for the visitors, Soroksár SC.

In the last 5 matches both teams produced BTTS in 20% (1/5) of games each, while the league seasonal BTTS rate is 50%, indicating a below-league propensity for both teams to score in these direct forms. Karcag scored only 1 goal in the last 5 matches (0.2 per match) and conceded 4 goals (0.8 per match), whereas Soroksár scored 7 goals (1.4 per match) and conceded 2 (0.4 per match), so Soroksár is primarily the goal-creating side. Seasonally Karcag has 100% clean sheets, and clean sheets occur in 75% of league matches, which increases the probability that one team will remain goalless. Although recent xG over the last 5 matches is moderate (Karcag 1.38 xG vs Soroksár 1.25 xG), Karcag fails to convert xG into goals (1.38 xG vs 0.2 actual goals), suggesting low finishing efficiency and favoring a No BTTS scenario.

I project a total of 2.35 goals: Karcag 1.35 xG and Soroksár 1.00 xG. Karcag at home has a seasonal xG of 1.07 and 1.38 xG in the last 5 matches, scoring on average 1.0 goal at home with 9 shots and 2 on target, while seasonal stats show 100% clean sheets and 100% of matches under 1.5/2.5, which limits their goal contribution. Soroksár has scored 7 goals in the last 5 matches (avg 1.4) and has a recent xG of 1.25 with an average of 0.4 goals conceded in that period, showing clearer offensive form. With an expected goals total of 2.35 the distribution gives a probability of at least 2 goals around 68%, at least 3 goals around 42% and at least 4 goals around 21%. Based on this, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5, while Over 2.5 is less certain (about 42%).

Karcag SE’s home season statistics show an average of 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded, an average of 3.0 points per home match, with 100.0% wins and 100.0% clean sheets. At the same time, 100.0% of their home matches were level at the break, and the average goals in the second half is 1.0, which suggests decisions after the break. The hosts’ offense has an xG of 1.07 versus 0.0 for Soroksár, on average 9.0 shots versus 0.0 and 2.0 shots on target, and a goal in minutes 76–90 was recorded once, indicating late goals. The visitors’ stats show 0.0 in many fields (average goals 0.0, xG 0.0), likely due to an incomplete sample, so Karcag’s patterns carry more weight. On this basis the strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1), which I assign 60% probability; alternatives are X/X ~20% and X/2 ~8%, with remaining combinations ~12% in total.