Katsina United vs Niger Tornadoes: match statistics
Katsina United vs Niger Tornadoes: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Katsina United played Niger Tornadoes in NPFL (Nigeria). The match was played on 5 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Katsina United: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Niger Tornadoes: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Katsina United scores 0.77 and concedes 0.81 goals per match. Niger Tornadoes scores 1.06 and concedes 0.94. League average: 1.94 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Katsina United 29%, Niger Tornadoes 28%. Over 2.5: Katsina United 13%, Niger Tornadoes 31%. League level: BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 29%.
xG, shots and style
Niger Tornadoes has higher xG: 1.51 vs 1.08. Katsina United: 2.9 shots per match, Niger Tornadoes: 8.9.
Match halves
Katsina United: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.39. Niger Tornadoes: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.69.
Goals by minute
Katsina United: 31-45+ (6 goals). Niger Tornadoes: 76-90+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
NPFL: 1.94 goals per match, BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 29%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Katsina United are the clear favorites: at home they average 1.13 goals scored and concede only 0.56 per match, with 56% of home games ending in clean sheets. Niger Tornadoes struggle on the road: just 0.44 goals scored, 1.44 conceded, only 13% clean sheets and as many as 63% of away matches without scoring, with an 81% loss rate at opponents’ grounds. Chance quality and efficiency also favor Katsina — their home xG is 1.27 versus 0.98 xG for Niger away, 3.33 shots on target per game versus 2.18 and a conversion rate of 15% compared to Niger’s 5%. Although Niger have a better overall points rate in the last 5 matches (1.4 pts/game vs 1.0 for Katsina), the accumulation of the visitors’ poor away efficiency and the hosts’ defensive advantage gives Katsina a clear edge. Based on this, I predict a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - No. Katsina United possess a very solid defense: clean sheet in 75% of matches this season and conceding only 0.44 goals per game on average. Niger Tornadoes show poor offensive efficiency — just 0.44 goals per game, 2.18 shots on target and a shot conversion rate of 5%, which significantly limits their scoring chances. Katsina generate 1.93 xG, score 1.69 goals per game on average with 5.36 shots on target, so the hosts should dominate, while the opponents’ expected finishing efficiency is low. Additionally, seasonal BTTS rates are 25% for Katsina and 31% for Niger, with the league at 38% BTTS, which together favor a no-goal-for-both scenario. Based on this I estimate BTTS 'Yes' at ~30% and 'No' at ~70%, therefore I recommend 'no' as the strongest signal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Statistics indicate a low-goal game: Katsina United averages 1.69 goals and has xG 1.93 with 75% clean sheets, while Niger Tornadoes score only 0.44 goals and have xG 0.98, with just 13% clean sheets. I applied a 60/40 weight between actual goal averages (1.69 and 0.44) and xG (1.93 and 0.98), yielding expected ~1.79 goals for the home side and ~0.66 for the visitors, total 2.45. Seasonal percentages show only 31% of each team’s matches finish Over 2.5 goals (league average Over 2.5 is 28%), and BTTS occurs in 25–31% of games, which favors Under 2.5. Although Over 1.5 occurs in 63% of both teams’ matches, poorer form in the last 5 matches (home 0.6 goals, away 0.8) and Katsina’s high clean sheet rate (75%) strengthen Under 2.5 as the best bet.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Katsina United are clear favorites: the home side win 69% of matches and average 2.31 points per game, with an average of 1.69 goals versus 0.44 for Niger Tornadoes. At Half-Time Katsina led in 9 matches (56%) and average 0.69 goals by the break compared to 0.06 for the visitors, while the hosts keep a clean sheet at the break in 88% of games. In the second half the hosts add an average of 1.00 goal (visitors 0.38) and register xG of 1.93 versus 0.98, with 15.29 shots and 5.36 on target compared to 7.18 and 2.18 for Tornadoes, converting at 12% versus 5%. Additionally, Katsina score particularly after the 60th minute (5 goals in 61–75 and 8 goals in 76–90), which favors maintaining or increasing a lead at Half-Time, so the most likely scenario is HT/FT 1/1.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Katsina United | Niger Tornadoes | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 25% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.37 | 0.17 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 1.04 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Niger Tornadoes is 40% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Katsina United · 1.4 pts / match - Niger Tornadoes
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Niger Tornadoes is 38% better for: goals scored per match.
0.77 goals / match - Katsina United · 1.06 goals / match - Niger Tornadoes
Katsina United is 16% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.81 goals / match - Katsina United · 0.94 goals / match - Niger Tornadoes
Katsina United scores in 55% of matches (17 of 31 matches), while Niger Tornadoes keeps a clean sheet in 44% (14 of 32 matches).
Niger Tornadoes scores in 63% of matches (20 of 32 matches), while Katsina United keeps a clean sheet in 39% (12 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Katsina United
Over / Under - Niger Tornadoes
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Katsina United is 14% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.39 pts / match - Katsina United · 1.22 pts / match - Niger Tornadoes
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Katsina United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Niger Tornadoes - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Katsina United
Niger Tornadoes
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (NPFL).
Teams vs league
| Katsina United | Liga | Niger Tornadoes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.58 | 1.94 | • 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 29% | 38% | ▼ 28% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 13% | 29% | ▲ 31% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 39% | 37% | ▲ 44% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 45% | 60% | ▲ 66% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 68% | 62% | ▲ 69% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Katsina United 0 - 0 - 1 Niger Tornadoes. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Katsina United vs Niger Tornadoes?
The NPFL match finished Katsina United 1:0 Niger Tornadoes. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Katsina United vs Niger Tornadoes?
Katsina United score 0.77 goals per game on average and Niger Tornadoes 1.06. The NPFL average is 1.94 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 29% of games. Both teams score in 29% of Katsina United's matches and 28% of Niger Tornadoes's.
What form are Katsina United and Niger Tornadoes in?
Over the last 5 games Katsina United have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Niger Tornadoes 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Katsina United vs Niger Tornadoes?
The statistical background for Katsina United vs Niger Tornadoes — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.