Kawkab Marrakech vs Ittihad Tanger: match statistics

Ittihad Tanger sit 3rd in the table, while Kawkab Marrakech are 7th. Over their last five matches, the visitors have picked up 8 points and the hosts 6. Away from home, Ittihad have scored an average of 3 goals and conceded 1, while Kawkab have scored 2 goals at home but conceded 3. The visitors have been more clinical, converting 30% of their shots compared with 13%, although the hosts have hit the target more often—an average of 8 times per match, compared with 5. Kawkab’s chances are boosted by the quality of the opportunities they create: their home xG is 1.96, while opponents’ away xG against them is 1.80. However, the home and away statistics are based on just one match for each team, so despite Ittihad’s edge in finishing and recent results, an away win is far from certain.

In their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 60% of Kawkab Marrakech's games and 80% of Ittihad Tanger's, supporting a BTTS - Yes pick. Over this period, the hosts averaged 1.0 goals per match and the visitors 1.4, while both teams conceded 1.0 per match. Kawkab's chances of scoring are boosted by the fact that their opponents allowed chances worth an average of 1.64 xG in their last 5 matches, compared with the 1.29 xG created by the hosts. Ittihad also has a case for finding the net: their average xG across their last 5 matches is 1.65, and Kawkab failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their matches during this period, conceding 5 goals in total. Season figures at home and away show 100% of matches featuring goals from both teams, though this should be treated with more caution than the data from the last 5 outings.

In their last 5 matches, Kawkab averaged 1.0 goals scored and Ittihad 1.4, while both teams conceded 1.0 goal per game. The visitors’ attacking potential is reflected in their average xG of 1.65, compared with 1.29 for the hosts, although Kawkab create more chances at home than their scoring record suggests: 2.71 xG despite averaging 1.0 goal scored. Over 1.5 goals landed in 100% of Kawkab’s home matches and Ittihad’s away matches, but Over 2.5 goals was recorded in only 20% and 40% of their respective last 5 matches. Therefore, with a projection of 2.8 goals, Over 1.5 has the edge, while higher lines do not offer an equally strong signal.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Kawkab went into the break level in 4 of its last 5 matches and did not lead at the break in any of them. After half-time, the visitors hold a slight edge, having won the second half in 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with 2 such wins for the hosts. Ittihad have also averaged 1.4 goals per match recently, compared with Kawkab’s 1.0, and won 2 of their 5 matches, while the hosts won 1. This points to a draw at half-time and an away win at full-time, although a full-time draw remains a close alternative: Kawkab have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches. The forecast is not clear-cut, as the hosts have a higher average xG, 2.71 compared with the visitors’ 1.76, and take 21 shots per match compared with 10.