KCCA vs Mbarara City: match statistics
KCCA vs Mbarara City: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
KCCA play Mbarara City in Uganda Premier League (Uganda). The match date is 23 May 2026 at 14:00. Final score: 4:1.
Current form
KCCA: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Mbarara City: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
KCCA scores 1.53 and concedes 0.73 goals per match. Mbarara City scores 0.87 and concedes 1.57. League average: 2.09 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: KCCA 43%, Mbarara City 57%. Over 2.5: KCCA 50%, Mbarara City 40%. League level: BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 35%.
xG, shots and style
KCCA has higher xG: 1.68 vs 1.31. KCCA: 11.8 shots per match, Mbarara City: 8.2.
Match halves
KCCA: half-time lead 47%, second-half goals 0.77. Mbarara City: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.47.
Goals by minute
KCCA: 76-90+ (12 goals). Mbarara City: 61-75 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uganda Premier League: 2.09 goals per match, BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 35%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
I back KCCA to win, primarily due to the hosts’ clear statistical superiority. KCCA averages 1.93 goals at home with an average xG of 1.85 and 5.71 shots on target per match, while Mbarara on the road records just 0.79 goals, xG 1.21 and 2.62 shots on target; conversion rate is 14% versus the visitors’ 8%. Defensively KCCA also looks stronger — conceding 0.64 goals per home match and keeping 43% clean sheets, whereas Mbarara concedes 1.86 goals away and has only 14% clean sheets. In the last 5 matches KCCA scored 6 and conceded 3 (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, 1.6 points per match), while Mbarara’s last 5 read 3-0-2 with a 6-5 goal record (1.8 points per match), indicating a short-term uptick in the visitors’ form but not enough to offset their away weaknesses. Considering the season goal difference (KCCA 42-21 vs Mbarara 25-43), the possession edge (58% vs 45%) and superior quality metrics (xG and shots on target), I estimate probabilities of 75% for the home win, 15% for a draw and 10% for the away win.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| KCCA | Mbarara City | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
KCCA is 22% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / match - KCCA · 1.8 pts / match - Mbarara City
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
KCCA is 76% better for: goals scored per match.
1.53 goals / match - KCCA · 0.87 goals / match - Mbarara City
KCCA is 115% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.73 goals / match - KCCA · 1.57 goals / match - Mbarara City
KCCA scores in 73% of matches (22 of 30 matches), while Mbarara City keeps a clean sheet in 20% (6 of 30 matches).
Mbarara City scores in 70% of matches (21 of 30 matches), while KCCA keeps a clean sheet in 40% (12 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — KCCA
Over / Under — Mbarara City
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
KCCA is 86% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.73 pts / match - KCCA · 0.93 pts / match - Mbarara City
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
KCCA - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 47% of matches and wins 63%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Mbarara City - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 20%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +11 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
KCCA
Mbarara City
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uganda Premier League).
Teams vs league
| KCCA | Liga | Mbarara City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.27 | 2.09 | ▲ 2.43 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 43% | 38% | ▲ 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 35% | ▲ 40% |
| Clean sheets | • 40% | 39% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 73% | 59% | • 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 73% | 62% | ▲ 77% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: KCCA 1 - 0 - 0 Mbarara City. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of KCCA vs Mbarara City?
The Uganda Premier League match finished KCCA 4:1 Mbarara City. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before KCCA vs Mbarara City?
KCCA score 1.53 goals per game on average and Mbarara City 0.87. The Uganda Premier League average is 2.09 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 35% of games. Both teams score in 43% of KCCA's matches and 57% of Mbarara City's.
What form are KCCA and Mbarara City in?
Over the last 5 games KCCA have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Mbarara City 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for KCCA vs Mbarara City?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for KCCA vs Mbarara City: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.