Keçiörengücü vs Sarıyer: match statistics

Keçiörengücü have a clearly greater attacking potential at home: they average 3.0 goals per match, register 17.5 shots and produce an xG of 1.91, while Sarıyer average 1.5 goals and an xG of 1.00 away from home. The hosts have scored in every home fixture, and their 6.5 shots on target per match should put the visitors’ defence under significant pressure. However, Sarıyer are in better rhythm across the last five rounds, winning 3 matches and averaging 2 points per game, compared with just 1 point for Keçiörengücü. The visitors concede an average of 1.0 goals away from home, compared with 1.5 for the hosts at home, but neither team has kept a clean sheet in the conditions analysed. The superior quality of chances created and home advantage marginally favour a Keçiörengücü win, although Sarıyer’s strong current form clearly increases the risk of a draw or an upset.

Sarıyer have recorded BTTS - Yes in 100% of their matches so far, while Keçiörengücü have done so in 50%, with each team averaging 1.5 goals scored. In their last five matches, the hosts have averaged 2.0 goals scored but conceded as many as 1.8, with both teams scoring in 80% of those fixtures. The visitors are in good attacking form, scoring 1.4 goals per match across their last five outings, while Keçiörengücü have allowed opponents an average xG of 1.51. The hosts create significantly more chances than Sarıyer, averaging 13 shots and 6 on target compared with the visitors’ 8 and 3, while their xG of 1.54 exceeds the 1.38 xG conceded by their opponents. Although Keçiörengücü have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season, their current defensive form and Sarıyer’s consistent scoring record provide stronger support for the BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal outcome, rather than BTTS - No, which means that at least one team fails to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither side scores.

The model expects 2.56 goals, as Keçiörengücü generate an average of 1.54 xG, while Sarıyer allow opponents 1.38 xG. The visitors’ attacking potential stands at 1.00 xG, compared with 1.14 xG conceded by the hosts. Both teams score an average of 1.5 goals, but also concede only 1.0 goal per match, which limits the likelihood of a high-scoring game. In their last five matches, Keçiörengücü scored 2.0 goals and conceded 1.8, while Sarıyer conceded just 0.8 goals, which should reduce the hosts’ scoring efficiency. So far, 100% of matches involving each team have featured a maximum of three goals, and neither has exceeded the 3.5-goal line. Therefore, Under 3.5 offers the highest value: the data supports an expectation of 2–3 goals but does not support a scenario with four or more goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Sarıyer win at the final whistle, as the visitors have averaged 2.0 points per match this season compared with Keçiörengücü’s 1.5. In their last five matches, Sarıyer have won 60% of their games and conceded just 0.8 goals per match, while the hosts have won only 20% and allowed opponents to score 1.8 goals on average. The opening phase may nevertheless be cautious: Sarıyer have averaged just 0.2 goals before half-time in their last five matches, drawing at the break in 40% of them. After the interval, the visitors clearly improve, scoring an average of 1.2 goals, with second-half goals recorded in all five of their most recent outings. Keçiörengücü have greater creative potential, with an xG of 1.54 compared with Sarıyer’s 1.00 and an average of 6 shots on target compared with 3, but their poor current form and the fact that they were behind at half-time in 80% of their last five matches increase the likelihood of a post-break turnaround in favour of the visitors.