Keflavík vs Fram: match statistics

Fram sit 2nd in the away standings and have won 64% of their matches on the road, while Keflavík win 45% of their home fixtures. The visitors average 2.27 goals per away game, clearly more than the hosts’ 1.64, and their shot conversion rate stands at 13% compared with 9%. However, the quality of chances created is very similar: Fram’s average xG is 1.88, while Keflavík’s is 1.86, so the hosts should create scoring opportunities. Fram’s away defence concedes an average of 1.64 goals and keeps a clean sheet in only 18% of matches, increasing Keflavík’s chances of scoring. Despite this, the visitors’ stronger season record—57 goals scored compared with 34—and 12 goals in their last five matches support a narrow victory for Fram.

The signal for both teams to score is very clear: BTTS occurred in 83% of Keflavík’s matches and 73% of Fram’s games, compared with the league average of 71%. Fram recorded BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.4 goals while conceding 2.2. Keflavík has shown lower recent attacking efficiency, averaging 1.2 goals across their last five fixtures, but their xG stands at 1.57, while Fram allows opponents 1.48 xG per match. Neither defense regularly keeps a clean sheet, with Keflavík doing so in just 8% of matches and Fram in 18%. In addition, the hosts average 18.33 shots and the visitors 17.18, which, combined with high goal averages of 2.67 and 2.27, strengthens the scenario in which both sides find the net.

The match profile is clearly offensive: Keflavík scores an average of 2.67 goals per game, while Fram averages 2.27, with both teams also showing weak defensive records, conceding 2.25 and 1.64 goals respectively. Both sides regularly create chances, as reflected by average xG figures of 2.18 for the hosts and 1.88 for the visitors, along with more than 17 shots per match for each team. In their last five matches, Fram scored 2.4 goals per game, and every one of those matches went Over 2.5 goals, while Keflavík conceded 1.6 goals during the same period. The 1.5-goal line was covered in 92% of Keflavík’s matches and 82% of Fram’s, while the Icelandic league has a high average of 3.87 goals per game. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as even a more cautious projection of 3.50 goals provides a very substantial safety margin.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Keflavík victory, as Fram were level at the break in 45% of their matches, compared with 33% for Keflavík. However, the visitors are more dangerous before half-time: they average 1.55 goals in the first half, compared with 1.17 for the hosts, so scenarios involving a Fram lead at the break also retain a significant probability. After the interval, Keflavík’s advantage becomes pronounced, as they average 1.50 goals in the second half, while Fram average only 0.73 and fail to score in as many as 45% of such periods. Keflavík won the second half in 42% of matches, compared with just 18% for Fram, which supports either a turnaround from a half-time draw or Keflavík edging a closely contested match in the second half.