Keflavík vs Stjarnan: match statistics
Keflavík vs Stjarnan: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Keflavík played Stjarnan in Úrvalsdeild (Iceland). The match was played on 17 May 2026. Venue: Nettóvöllurinn. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Keflavík: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Stjarnan: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Keflavík scores 1.50 and concedes 1.83 goals per match. Stjarnan scores 2.17 and concedes 2.67. League average: 3.90 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Keflavík 83%, Stjarnan 100%. Over 2.5: Keflavík 83%, Stjarnan 100%. League level: BTTS 72%, Over 2.5 74%.
xG, shots and style
Stjarnan has higher xG: 1.82 vs 1.50. Keflavík: 13.3 shots per match, Stjarnan: 14.5.
Match halves
Keflavík: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 1.00. Stjarnan: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Keflavík: 31-45+ (3 goals). Stjarnan: 0-15 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Úrvalsdeild: 3.90 goals per match, BTTS 72%, Over 2.5 74%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict an away win (2): Stjarnan holds a clear offensive edge — they average 2.5 goals on the road with a conversion rate of ~28%, while Keflavík score only 0.5 goals per home match with a conversion around 4%. The visitors also generate more high-quality chances: away they average 5 shots on target and 9 total shots per game versus the hosts' 3 shots on target and 12.5 total attempts, and they maintain higher possession (53% vs 40%). Both teams are defensively vulnerable — Keflavík concede 1.5 goals at home on average, and Stjarnan concede 2.5 on the road; in the last 5 matches the visitors have conceded 13 goals and the hosts 8, indicating an open game with multiple goals. xG shows the chances are similar in quality (Keflavík xG for at home 1.34 vs Stjarnan xG for away 1.27), but the hosts fail to convert (0.5 goals from xG 1.34), while the visitors convert their chances more efficiently (2.5 goals from xG 1.27). Considering Stjarnan’s higher efficiency, the fact Keflavík failed to score in 50% of home games while Stjarnan has 0% FTS away, plus the possession and shots-on-target differences, I estimate a 55% probability for an away win, 20% for a draw and 25% for a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal is that both Keflavík and Stjarnan have a season BTTS rate of 100%, while the league average BTTS is 72%. Neither team has registered a clean sheet this season (0%) and they concede on average 2.75 and 2.5 goals per match respectively, which significantly increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal. In attack, Keflavík scores 2.0 goals on average with xG 2.1 and 17.25 shots per match (7.25 on target), while Stjarnan averages 2.5 goals with xG 1.27 and a very high shot conversion rate of 28% with 5.0 shots on target, so both sides have realistic scoring capabilities. In the last 5 matches the BTTS rate was 80% for Keflavík and 100% for Stjarnan; during that period Keflavík scored 7 and conceded 8 goals, and Stjarnan scored 9 and conceded 13, which further supports the both teams to score scenario. Given these specific figures — 100% season BTTS for both, 0% clean sheets, high average goals conceded (2.75 and 2.5) and last 5 matches BTTS 80%/100% — I assess the probability of BTTS at 90% for 'Yes' and 10% for 'No', therefore I pick 'BTTS - Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG and defensive data I estimated expected goals: Keflavík has an attacking xG of 2.10 and Stjarnan concedes opponents’ xG of 2.11 — yielding about 2.10 goals for the home side; Stjarnan has an attacking xG of 1.27 and Keflavík concedes 1.83 — about 1.55 goals for the away side; total ≈3.65 goals. This aligns with league reality: matches average 4.0 goals, and this season both teams have had Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games and both sides record BTTS in 100% of matches. In the last 5 fixtures Keflavík produced Over 2.5 in 80% of cases, Stjarnan in 100%, and matches >3.5 occurred in 75% for Keflavík and 100% for Stjarnan, reinforcing a high-scoring outlook. The shot profile confirms scoring potential: Keflavík averages 17.25 shots and 7.25 on target (averaging 2.0 goals per match), Stjarnan 9 shots and 5 on target (averaging 2.5 goals), with Stjarnan’s high conversion rate (28% conversion) increasing the likelihood of goals. Therefore the best line to play is Over 2.5 (ou_pred_side = "over", ou_pred_line = 2.5): I assess Over 1.5 at ~96% probability, Over 2.5 at ~88%, and Over 3.5 at ~68%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is 2/2 — Stjarnan leading at the break and ultimately winning the match. In their last five games Stjarnan led at the break in 60% of matches and averaged 1.6 goals by half-time versus 0.6 for Keflavík, indicating the visitors’ advantage in the first half. Over 90 minutes Stjarnan are also favored by average points and efficiency: the visitors average 1.5 points per game and have won 50% of matches versus the hosts’ 0.75 points per game and 25% win rate, while the seasonal goals per game are 2.5 for Stjarnan versus 2.0 for Keflavík. Although Keflavík have a higher xG (2.10 vs 1.27) and more shots (17.25 vs 9.0), Stjarnan convert chances far better (28% vs 12%) and have scored three goals in minutes 0–15 versus one for the home side; the fact that both teams have scored in 100% of this season’s matches increases the likelihood of goals before the break, therefore I select 2/2 as the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Keflavík | Stjarnan | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 45% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Keflavík is 133% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Keflavík · 0.6 pts / match - Stjarnan
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Stjarnan is 45% better for: goals scored per match.
1.5 goals / match - Keflavík · 2.17 goals / match - Stjarnan
Keflavík is 46% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.83 goals / match - Keflavík · 2.67 goals / match - Stjarnan
Keflavík scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while Stjarnan keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 6 matches).
Stjarnan scores in 100% of matches (6 of 6 matches), while Keflavík keeps a clean sheet in 17% (1 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Keflavík
Over / Under - Stjarnan
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Stjarnan is 100% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Keflavík · 2 pts / match - Stjarnan
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Keflavík - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Stjarnan - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 33%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 1.0 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 0% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -7 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Keflavík
Stjarnan
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Úrvalsdeild).
Teams vs league
| Keflavík | Liga | Stjarnan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 3.33 | 3.90 | ▲ 4.83 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 83% | 72% | ▲ 100% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 83% | 74% | ▲ 100% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 17% | 15% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | • 83% | 82% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 83% | 90% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Keflavík vs Stjarnan?
The Úrvalsdeild match finished Keflavík 1:1 Stjarnan. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Keflavík vs Stjarnan?
Keflavík score 1.50 goals per game on average and Stjarnan 2.17. The Úrvalsdeild average is 3.90 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 74% of games. Both teams score in 83% of Keflavík's matches and 100% of Stjarnan's.
What form are Keflavík and Stjarnan in?
Over the last 5 games Keflavík have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Stjarnan 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Keflavík vs Stjarnan?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Keflavík vs Stjarnan: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.