Kelty Hearts vs Alloa Athletic: match statistics
Alloa Athletic clearly dominates this matchup across all key metrics. Hosts Kelty Hearts display disastrous home form, recording an 89% loss rate and zero wins on home soil, while conceding an average of 2.67 goals per game against a mere 0.44 scored. Their streak of nine consecutive home defeats and a -20 goal difference in home fixtures highlight massive defensive and offensive deficiencies. Conversely, Alloa Athletic sits second in the table with a solid away record (44% win rate), an 11% shot conversion rate, and just 0.67 goals conceded per away game. The visitors also hold the advantage in expected goals (xG 1.27 vs 0.97 for the hosts) and maintain a 44% clean sheet rate on the road. Despite a dip in form over the last five matches, Alloa Athletic's quality and stability should translate into a victory over one of the league's weakest sides.
Kelty Hearts vs Alloa Athletic: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Kelty Hearts played Alloa Athletic in League One (Scotland). The match was played on 3 January 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Kelty Hearts: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Alloa Athletic: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Kelty Hearts scores 0.95 and concedes 2.21 goals per match. Alloa Athletic scores 1.16 and concedes 0.58. League average: 2.55 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Kelty Hearts 53%, Alloa Athletic 21%. Over 2.5: Kelty Hearts 74%, Alloa Athletic 32%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Alloa Athletic has higher xG: 1.16 vs 0.96. Kelty Hearts: 6.7 shots per match, Alloa Athletic: 8.8.
Match halves
Kelty Hearts: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.37. Alloa Athletic: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.68.
Goals by minute
Kelty Hearts: 16-30 (5 goals). Alloa Athletic: 61-75 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
League One: 2.55 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-2. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Alloa Athletic clearly dominates this matchup across all key metrics. Hosts Kelty Hearts display disastrous home form, recording an 89% loss rate and zero wins on home soil, while conceding an average of 2.67 goals per game against a mere 0.44 scored. Their streak of nine consecutive home defeats and a -20 goal difference in home fixtures highlight massive defensive and offensive deficiencies. Conversely, Alloa Athletic sits second in the table with a solid away record (44% win rate), an 11% shot conversion rate, and just 0.67 goals conceded per away game. The visitors also hold the advantage in expected goals (xG 1.27 vs 0.97 for the hosts) and maintain a 44% clean sheet rate on the road. Despite a dip in form over the last five matches, Alloa Athletic's quality and stability should translate into a victory over one of the league's weakest sides.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Kelty Hearts | Alloa Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 50% | 52% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Alloa Athletic is 67% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Kelty Hearts · 1 pts / match - Alloa Athletic
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Alloa Athletic is 22% better for: goals scored per match.
0.95 goals / match - Kelty Hearts · 1.16 goals / match - Alloa Athletic
Alloa Athletic is 281% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.21 goals / match - Kelty Hearts · 0.58 goals / match - Alloa Athletic
Kelty Hearts scores in 63% of matches (12 of 19 matches), while Alloa Athletic keeps a clean sheet in 53% (10 of 19 matches).
Alloa Athletic scores in 58% of matches (11 of 19 matches), while Kelty Hearts keeps a clean sheet in 11% (2 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Kelty Hearts
Over / Under - Alloa Athletic
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Alloa Athletic is 26% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.05 pts / match - Kelty Hearts · 1.32 pts / match - Alloa Athletic
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Kelty Hearts - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 16%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Alloa Athletic - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -7 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Kelty Hearts
Alloa Athletic
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League One).
Teams vs league
| Kelty Hearts | Liga | Alloa Athletic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.16 | 2.55 | ▼ 1.74 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 53% | 41% | ▼ 21% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 74% | 52% | ▼ 32% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 11% | 32% | ▲ 53% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 95% | 72% | ▼ 53% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 80% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Kelty Hearts 0 - 0 - 2 Alloa Athletic. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Kelty Hearts vs Alloa Athletic?
The League One match finished Kelty Hearts 1:1 Alloa Athletic. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Kelty Hearts and Alloa Athletic?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Kelty Hearts won 0, Alloa Athletic won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Kelty Hearts vs Alloa Athletic?
Kelty Hearts score 0.95 goals per game on average and Alloa Athletic 1.16. The League One average is 2.55 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 53% of Kelty Hearts's matches and 21% of Alloa Athletic's.
What form are Kelty Hearts and Alloa Athletic in?
Over the last 5 games Kelty Hearts have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Alloa Athletic 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Kelty Hearts vs Alloa Athletic?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Kelty Hearts vs Alloa Athletic: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.