KÍ vs EB - Streymur: match statistics

KÍ sit second in the table with a record of 10 wins, 8 draws and just 2 defeats, while EB - Streymur are 7th after 5 wins and 10 losses. At home, the hosts create chances worth an average of 1.63 xG and concede just 0.9 goals per match, whereas away from home the visitors allow opponents 2.02 xG and concede an average of 2 goals. EB - Streymur can be dangerous going forward, scoring 1.67 goals per away match and failing to score in only 11% of their games, but they have not kept a single clean sheet. KÍ’s last five matches have been weaker, with 1 win and a 6:12 goal record, but their superior season-long quality, average home possession of 59%, and clearly more stable defence all favour the hosts. The odds on a KÍ win are the most justified, although the open style of play and the hosts’ recent defensive dip give the visitors a realistic chance of scoring.

The strongest argument for BTTS - Yes is EB - Streymur’s very weak defense, which has kept no clean sheets and concedes an average of 2.00 goals per match. The visitors are simultaneously scoring an average of 1.67 goals, while KÍ have conceded as many as 12 goals in their last five matches, or 2.40 per game. The current quality of both sides’ chances also favors goals: their average xG from the last five matches stands at 1.65 for KÍ and 1.68 for EB - Streymur. BTTS - Yes has landed in 89% of the visitors’ matches and in 80% of their last five fixtures, clearly above the league average of 54%. The risk lies in KÍ’s lower attacking efficiency: they average 0.91 goals per match this season and have failed to score in 36% of their games. However, the opponent’s defensive weakness significantly reduces the importance of this negative signal.

The signal for at least two goals is very clear: the 1.5-goal line was surpassed in 82% of KÍ matches and 89% of EB - Streymur fixtures. EB - Streymur have kept no clean sheets, conceding an average of 2.00 goals per match, while KÍ have allowed opponents as many as 2.40 goals per game across their last five outings. Both teams also create enough chances, with average xG figures of 1.28 for KÍ and 1.44 for the visitors, rising to 1.65 and 1.68 respectively over the last five matches. Recent form supports a higher-scoring outcome, as KÍ matches averaged 3.60 goals and EB - Streymur fixtures 3.80 goals during this period. Over 1.5 has an edge over the higher lines, as 3.5 goals was not exceeded in 91% of KÍ's matches this season, despite the current defensive data increasing the chances of a result above 2.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an EB - Streymur win at full-time, as KÍ were level at the break in 64% of their matches, compared with 33% for the visitors. EB - Streymur average 1.00 goals before half-time, compared with KÍ’s 0.45, and led after 45 minutes in 44% of matches, versus 27% for the hosts. The visitors also have a higher average xG, 1.44 compared with 1.28, register more shots on target, 4.22 to 3.64, and convert their attempts more efficiently: 14% versus 9%. After the break, KÍ concede an average of 0.91 goals, while EB - Streymur score 0.67, and in their last five matches the hosts have conceded as many as 1.8 goals after half-time. The visitors’ defence remains vulnerable, as they have kept no clean sheets in any match this season. Therefore, a draw at half-time is more likely than an early lead for the visitors, but their attacking advantage favours a later turnaround in the match.