Kigezi Home Boyz vs NEC: match statistics

NEC are in 2nd place and remain unbeaten after 5 matches, while Kigezi Home Boyz sit 18th and have recorded 4 defeats and a draw in their last 5 games. The visitors scored 9 goals and conceded 2 over that period, whereas the hosts managed 2 goals and conceded 8, clearly favouring NEC. At home, Kigezi average just 2 shots on target and have yet to score, while NEC average 3 shots on target and 1 goal away from home. The visitors also have the edge in the quality of chances created, with an away xG of 1.39 compared with the hosts’ home xG of 1.02. A draw remains possible, as Kigezi drew their only home match so far and NEC have drawn half of their away games; however, the overall results and attacking efficiency point to an away win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is NEC’s defensive record: across their last 5 matches, the visitors conceded an average of just 0.4 goals, while Kigezi Home Boyz scored only 0.4 goals per match. The hosts scored just 2 goals in total over this period, increasing the risk that they fail to find the net despite an average xG of 1.32. NEC have recently averaged 1.8 goals scored, while Kigezi conceded 1.6, making a goal from the visitors more likely than one from the hosts. Although the hosts’ season percentage of matches in which both teams scored is 67%, NEC’s is 0% and the league average is 33%; taken together, the data point towards a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: all of NEC’s away matches so far have finished with no more than 2 goals, while the league average is 2.0 goals per game. In their last 5 matches, Kigezi averaged just 0.4 goals, while NEC conceded only 0.4, limiting expectations for the hosts. The visitors have greater attacking potential, averaging 1.8 goals over the same period, with an xG of 1.59 compared with Kigezi’s 1.32. Since the hosts have recently conceded an average of 1.6 goals, an NEC win is possible, but the projected total of 2.2 goals still clearly favors Under 3.5.

The strongest signal is current form: Kigezi Home Boyz have taken 0.2 points per game across their last five matches, compared with 2.2 for NEC; over this period, the hosts averaged 0.4 goals scored, while the visitors averaged 1.8. A draw at half-time is more likely than NEC taking an early lead, as the visitors were level at the break in 60% of their recent matches, compared with 50% for the hosts. NEC should gain the upper hand after the break: they have averaged 1.0 goals in second halves in recent matches, against 0.25 for Kigezi, and won 60% of those halves, compared with 0% for the hosts. The visitors’ defence also supports the X/2 scenario, having conceded an average of 0.4 goals in their last five matches, while the hosts conceded 1.6. However, this is not a sure pick: in their matches at home so far, Kigezi have averaged 2.33 goals scored, while NEC have yet to concede away from home—both samples are small.