Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a very even meeting between two teams from the bottom half of the table. Kilmarnock presents poor home form with just 17% wins and a goal difference of -8, however, St. Mirren is unable to win away (only 9% victories) and hasn't recorded a single clean sheet in away matches. The form of the last five matches favors the guests (1.8 PPG vs 0.8 PPG), who are unbeaten in their last five games (2W-3D). Both teams have identical shot efficiency (7%) and similar xG indicators, suggesting similar offensive potential. Considering Kilmarnock's weakness at home and St. Mirren's better current form, but simultaneously the guests' fatal away record, the most likely scenario seems to be a draw or a narrow victory for one of the sides.
Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Kilmarnock played St. Mirren in Premiership (Scotland). The match was played on 11 February 2026. Final score: 4:3.
Current form
Kilmarnock: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. St. Mirren: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Kilmarnock scores 0.96 and concedes 1.92 goals per match. St. Mirren scores 0.75 and concedes 1.29. League average: 2.58 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Kilmarnock 56%, St. Mirren 38%. Over 2.5: Kilmarnock 64%, St. Mirren 29%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
St. Mirren has higher xG: 1.41 vs 1.23. Kilmarnock: 10.6 shots per match, St. Mirren: 12.5.
Match halves
Kilmarnock: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.44. St. Mirren: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
Kilmarnock: 31-45+ (7 goals). St. Mirren: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premiership: 2.58 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a very even meeting between two teams from the bottom half of the table. Kilmarnock presents poor home form with just 17% wins and a goal difference of -8, however, St. Mirren is unable to win away (only 9% victories) and hasn't recorded a single clean sheet in away matches. The form of the last five matches favors the guests (1.8 PPG vs 0.8 PPG), who are unbeaten in their last five games (2W-3D). Both teams have identical shot efficiency (7%) and similar xG indicators, suggesting similar offensive potential. Considering Kilmarnock's weakness at home and St. Mirren's better current form, but simultaneously the guests' fatal away record, the most likely scenario seems to be a draw or a narrow victory for one of the sides.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Kilmarnock | St. Mirren | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
St. Mirren is 25% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Kilmarnock · 1 pts / match - St. Mirren
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Kilmarnock is 28% better for: goals scored per match.
0.96 goals / match - Kilmarnock · 0.75 goals / match - St. Mirren
St. Mirren is 49% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.92 goals / match - Kilmarnock · 1.29 goals / match - St. Mirren
Kilmarnock scores in 68% of matches (17 of 25 matches), while St. Mirren keeps a clean sheet in 29% (7 of 24 matches).
St. Mirren scores in 54% of matches (13 of 24 matches), while Kilmarnock keeps a clean sheet in 20% (5 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Kilmarnock
Over / Under - St. Mirren
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Kilmarnock is 8% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.12 pts / match - Kilmarnock · 1.04 pts / match - St. Mirren
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Kilmarnock - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 12%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
St. Mirren - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 21%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 0% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Kilmarnock
St. Mirren
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premiership).
Teams vs league
| Kilmarnock | Liga | St. Mirren | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.88 | 2.58 | ▼ 2.04 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 56% | 47% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 64% | 49% | ▼ 29% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 20% | 30% | • 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 73% | ▼ 42% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 84% | 78% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Kilmarnock 1 - 1 - 0 St. Mirren. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren?
The Premiership match finished Kilmarnock 4:3 St. Mirren. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Kilmarnock and St. Mirren?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Kilmarnock won 1, St. Mirren won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren?
Kilmarnock score 0.96 goals per game on average and St. Mirren 0.75. The Premiership average is 2.58 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Kilmarnock's matches and 38% of St. Mirren's.
What form are Kilmarnock and St. Mirren in?
Over the last 5 games Kilmarnock have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and St. Mirren 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.