Kirivong Sok Sen Chey vs Svay Rieng: match statistics

Both teams are in clearly poor form: Kirivong Sok Sen Chey have taken 4 points from their last 5 matches, while Svay Rieng have managed just 3. The hosts have scored only 3 goals during this period but conceded 8, whereas the visitors have found the net 12 times but allowed as many as 16 goals. Svay Rieng have suffered 4 defeats in their last five games, highlighting particularly significant problems with protecting a result despite their greater attacking efficiency. Kirivong’s record stands at 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, and with home advantage also on their side, I give the hosts a marginally higher chance of victory. However, the high number of goals conceded by both sides increases the likelihood of a tight, high-scoring match.

The strongest argument for both teams to score is Svay Rieng’s very weak defence: over their last 5 matches, the team conceded an average of 3.2 goals, with BTTS landing in all 5 fixtures. Kirivong Sok Sen Chey scored just 0.6 goals per match during this period and recorded BTTS in 40% of their games, which limits confidence in the pick, but their average xG of 1.25 indicates genuine potential to score. The visitors are clearly more productive going forward, averaging 2.4 goals and generating 2.04 xG per match, while the hosts concede an average of 1.6 goals. With Svay Rieng having conceded 16 goals in five appearances, it is more likely that the hosts will convert one of their chances and the visitors’ attack will add a goal of its own.

Data from the last five matches points to very high goal-scoring potential: Svay Rieng’s games produced an average of 5.6 goals, with the team scoring 2.4 and conceding as many as 3.2 goals per match. Kirivong Sok Sen Chey scored just 0.6 goals during this period, but their opponents conceded 3.2 goals per game, which clearly boosts the forecast for the home side. The quality of chances created also supports goals, with Svay Rieng recording an xG of 2.04 and Kirivong Sok Sen Chey 1.25; both teams allowed their opponents chances worth 1.68 and 1.59 xG, respectively. Over 2.5 goals landed in all five of Svay Rieng’s last matches, but given that Kirivong reached this line in only 40% of such games, the safest and strongest option remains Over 1.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is Kirivong Sok Sen Chey leading at the break and holding on for the win, as Svay Rieng were trailing at half-time in 80% of their last five matches. During this period, the hosts were either ahead or level at half-time in 60% of their games combined, while the visitors managed to draw only once in five appearances. Svay Rieng’s very poor defensive record is also crucial, as they concede an average of 3.2 goals per match, compared with 1.6 conceded by Kirivong Sok Sen Chey. Although the visitors score more—an average of 2.4 goals compared with the hosts’ 0.6—they have lost four of their last five matches and conceded an average of 1.6 goals before half-time. After the break, Kirivong Sok Sen Chey concede only 0.6 goals on average, increasing the chances of defending their advantage. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is 1/1.