Kluczevia Stargard vs Gedania Gdańsk: match statistics

Gedania Gdańsk are showing significantly better recent form: they have collected 13 points from their last five matches, winning 4 and drawing 1, while Kluczevia have managed just 4 points and suffered three defeats. During this period, the visitors scored 18 goals—twice as many as the hosts’ 9—while conceding 6 compared with Kluczevia’s 11. Away from home, Gedania average 1.65 xG and 15 shots per match, whereas Kluczevia’s home figures stand at 1.36 xG and 11 shots. Kluczevia have won their only home match so far and score an average of 2 goals there, but they have yet to keep a clean sheet, with average xG conceded at 1.57. Both teams are capable of scoring, but Gedania’s more consistent defensive record in recent matches and significantly stronger attacking trend make them the clear choice for the win.

The BTTS signal is very strong, as both teams have recorded goals from both sides in 100% of their matches this season, and neither has kept a clean sheet. Kluczevia score an average of 5.0 goals and concede 3.0 per match, while Gedania average 2.0 goals scored and also concede 2.0. In their last five matches, the home side have scored 1.8 goals and conceded 2.2, whereas the visitors have impressed with averages of 3.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Their attacking potential is confirmed by an xG of 1.28 for Kluczevia and 1.96 for Gedania, while the home defence allows opponents 1.60 xG. Even with Gedania’s recently improved defence, both teams exceed the league BTTS average of 67%, making a goal from each side the most likely outcome. BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal is therefore the recommended selection.

In their last five matches, Kluczevia averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, resulting in as many as 4.0 goals per game. Gedania are in even stronger offensive form: they scored 18 goals in five appearances, averaging 3.6 per match, while conceding just 6. The xG model also points to an open game, with the visitors averaging 1.96 xG and Kluczevia allowing opponents 1.60 xG; the combined projection is 3.25 goals. Over 2.5 goals landed in 100% of the hosts’ last five matches and in 80% of Gedania’s games, but the safest signal remains Over 1.5, supported by a 100% hit rate for this line on both sides in the available seasonal data.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Gedania win, as the visitors have averaged 2.6 points over their last five matches, won 80% of them and remained unbeaten, while Kluczevia lost 60% and averaged only 0.8 points per game. Gedania were level at the break in 60% of their recent matches, whereas Kluczevia had a draw after 45 minutes in only 20%; however, the hosts also went into half-time trailing just as frequently, in 40% of their matches. After the interval, the visitors’ superior form is clear: they score an average of 2.4 goals while conceding just 0.6, whereas the hosts concede an average of 1.4 goals in this period. Kluczevia currently have the weaker defence, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per match, while both teams show similar attacking potential according to xG: 1.60 for the hosts compared with 1.65 for the visitors. A goal for the hosts is possible, but Gedania’s more stable form and very strong second-half performances point to the draw turning in the visitors’ favour.