Kokand-1912 vs Termez Surkhon: match statistics

In my assessment the favorites are the visitors Termez Surkhon: in the last 5 matches they averaged 1.8 points per game and won 3 of 5, while Kokand-1912 have only 0.6 points per game and one win in their last 5. Seasonal totals also favor Termez: the visitors have 4 wins and 14 goals scored versus 2 wins and 13 goals for the hosts. On the pitch Termez dominates in control and chance creation — average possession 56% vs 44% for the hosts, average shots 11 vs 9.5 and attack xG 1.23 vs 1.11, indicating higher quality chances for the visitors. Kokand have slightly better conversion at home (11% vs 9%) and a lower average goals conceded at home (1.33 vs 1.86 for the visitors), but in the last 5 matches the hosts have conceded as many as 11 goals compared to only 5 conceded by Termez, which weakens their home advantage. Therefore I back an away win and assign probability distribution 55% for Termez, 25% for Kokand and 20% for a draw.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 57% (Kokand 57%, Termez 57%) and BTTS occurred in 60% of the last 5 matches for both sides, versus a league average of 56%, providing a strong statistical signal for both teams to score. Kokand at home averages 1.0 goals scored and concedes 1.29 this season, and in the last 5 matches concedes as much as 2.2 goals on average; Termez has season averages of 1.0 scored and 1.86 conceded, with 1.0 conceded in the last 5, indicating home vulnerability and consistent effectiveness from the visitors. From a chance-quality perspective, xG is 1.35 for Kokand and 1.23 for Termez, with xG against of 1.48 and 1.50 respectively, so both teams generate and allow about 1.2–1.5 xG per match, which favors goal exchanges. Additionally, the low number of clean sheets (14% for both) and average shots and shots on target (13 and 3.14 for the home side versus 11 and 2.86 for the visitors) make a goalless scenario unlikely. Based on this, I recommend BTTS - Yes as the strongest pick, with an estimated probability of 75% for Yes and 25% for No.

The xG model produces a total expected goals figure of 2.58 (home xG 1.35 vs away xG 1.23), which exceeds the 2.5 line and suggests an edge for Over. This season Kokand has had 57% of matches over 2.5 goals, Termez 43%, and in the last 5 meetings both teams register 60% of matches with more than 2.5 goals, confirming a goals trend. Both sides have 57% of season matches with both teams scoring and only 14% clean sheets, so the risk of goals from both teams is material. Kokand averages 13 shots (3.14 on target), Termez 11 (2.86 on target) with a conversion rate around 8–9%, indicating genuine chance creation. On this basis the strongest signal is to play Over 2.5 (selection: over at 2.5), with a high probability for Over 1.5 (82%) and a relatively low probability for Over 3.5 (22%).

At half-time the home side lead in 29% of their matches and are level in 43% of cases; the visitors, by contrast, have never led at the break (0%) and are behind at half-time in 71% of appearances, suggesting they typically start weaker. Nevertheless, the visitors are more dangerous after the interval: they average 1.00 goals in the second half versus 0.43 for the hosts, with total second-half goals of 2.0 for the visitors against 1.29 for the home team. In the last five matches the visitors’ form is 'wwwll' with a 60% win rate and the hosts 'lwlll' with a 20% win rate, and in those five games the visitors won the second half 60% of the time compared to only 20% for the hosts. Expected goals are similar (1.35 for the home side vs 1.23 for the visitors), so the strongest signal is the visitors’ stronger second-half performance — hence the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a visitor turnaround to win full-time (X/2).