Kolding IF vs Horsens: match statistics

I back the home win (Kolding IF). Kolding has noticeably better offensive form recently: 7 goals in the last 5 matches versus Horsens’ 2 in the same period. At home Kolding averages 1.42 goals with 4.42 shots on target and xG 1.59, while Horsens away records only 0.92 goals, 3.92 shots on target and xG 1.35, indicating superior chance creation by the hosts. Defensively Horsens looks solid on the road — conceding 0.58 goals on average and keeping clean sheets in 58% of away matches — but the visitors fail to score in 50% of their away games, whereas Kolding fail to score at home in only 17% of matches, which neutralises the opponent’s defensive edge. Additionally Kolding have earned 1.6 points per game in their last 5 fixtures versus Horsens’ 1.0, and seasonally 31 goals scored and 27 conceded compared to Horsens’ 27–24, so I assign Kolding a 55% chance to win, 25% for a draw and 20% for an away victory.

Kolding has a seasonal BTTS rate of 50% and 60% in the last 5 matches, while Horsens only 25% seasonally and 20% in the last 5, giving a clear home advantage in propensity for Goal/Goal games. Horsens keep a clean sheet in 58% of matches versus 42% for Kolding, and the season average goals conceded is 0.58 for Horsens and 1.42 for Kolding, which strongly reduces the probability of BTTS. In the short term Kolding creates more chances (last 5 matches xG 1.61 vs 0.78 for Horsens) and scores on average 1.4 goals versus 0.4 for Horsens, so the home side is the primary source of goals. Additionally, Horsens’ low efficiency and number of shots on target (conversion rate 8% and 3.92 shots on target) reduce the likelihood that the visitors will reply with a goal; given these figures I assess No Goal as more likely (No 64%, BTTS - Yes 36%).

Home season xG is 1.31 and Horsens season xG is 1.35; however, in the last 5 matches Kolding has xG 1.61 and scored 7 goals (avg 1.4), while Horsens has xG 0.78 and scored 2 goals in the last 5 (avg 0.4). Season goals averages are 1.33 for Kolding and 0.92 for Horsens, and the league averages 2.72 goals per match; Kolding’s home profile shows 58% of matches over 2.5 goals this season (60% in the last 5), whereas Horsens away has 33% (40% in the last 5). Kolding averages 11.75 shots and 4.33 shots on target versus Horsens 11.67 and 3.92, and Kolding has a higher conversion rate 11% vs 8%; the percentage of matches with both teams scoring is 50% for Kolding and 25% for Horsens. Taking these figures into account, I estimate expected goals of 1.48 for Kolding and 1.22 for Horsens, totaling 2.70 expected goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.70 produces roughly 75% probability for Over 1.5, 51% for Over 2.5 and 29% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest and most justified market to play is OVER 1.5.

The most likely scenario is 1/1 (Kolding leading at the break and ultimately winning), because Kolding led at the break in 6 of 12 home matches (50%) and scores an average of 0.83 goals in the first half, while Horsens concedes only 0.25 goals on average to the break away from home. Additionally, 83% of Kolding’s home games have seen at least one goal before half-time, which increases the chance of a home goal, but Horsens keeps a clean sheet at half-time in 75% of away matches, which mitigates that advantage. In the second half Kolding is active — they scored 5 goals in minutes 46–60 — which helps them maintain the lead, yet there is a risk of late concessions, as the hosts conceded as many as 6 goals in minutes 76–90, and Horsens scored 3 goals in 61–75 and 2 goals in 76–90. At full-time Kolding has a 42% home win rate compared to Horsens’s 33% away win rate and similar xG (1.31 vs 1.35), so I favor 1/1 (30%) as the strongest signal, with significant alternatives 1/X and X/1 due to the possibility of late equalizers.